Mets vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: San Fran Leaps on Lucchesi in MLB Return

It's Round 2 between the San Francisco Giants and the New York Mets tonight in California.

The Giants' struggles continued last night, and the Mets' surge was extended when they took care of business in blowout fashion. New York has won seven of its last eight games, including an impressive series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Giants on Friday, April 21.

Mets vs Giants odds

Mets vs Giants predictions

Joey Lucchesi will pitch in his first MLB game since June 18th, 2021 for the Mets in this spot. He's finally returning from a successful Tommy John surgery. Of course, he's pitched in various situations since then, including Spring Training. But none of them can compare to a major league game, making it extremely difficult to predict how he'll return. However, we can go off some historical data, and with that in mind, we can piece together our best bet for this one.

I'm on the team total Over for the Giants in the first five innings. It sits at 2.5 at DraftKings, and it's plus money.

It's a bit arbitrary in some ways, but I went back and researched the last five pitchers to have Tommy John surgeries and how they performed afterward. The results aren't exactly pretty. Only one was able to avoid not giving up multiple runs, and that was Justin Verlander. The rest were shelled, with Spencer Turnbull taking the cake, allowing seven earned runs in just over two innings. The average number of runs surrendered ended up being over four in under five innings of work.

This doesn't mean that Lucchesi will have a repeat performance of some of these pitchers, but it does give you an idea of how he may perform. Even when I extended my research to the last 15 starting pitchers that pitched three innings or more, Verlander remained the only one not to give up multiple runs. With all due respect to Lucchesi, he is not Verlander.

Of course, the other side of this is the Giants' bats. I ragged on their offense yesterday, but it was more from a strikeout perspective than anything else. There are at least some positive signs, and scoring nine runs in the last two games has added to that.

I caution against pulling too much pitching data from a player who hasn't pitched at the significant league level in so long, but we know Lucchesi's arsenal. It's breaking ball heavy, and those are pitches that the Giants have succeeded with. Their splits against finesse pitchers vs. power ones see a jump in virtually every metric when facing the former.

Take the Giants team total Over early here. 

My best bet: Giants 1H team total o2.5 (+115 at DraftKings)

Mets vs Giants moneyline analysis

MLB odds opened with San Francisco as tepid -115 home favorites, and after some early Mets action helped knock that line down a few cents, Giants buy-back has resulted in the line returning to -115.

I have no strong opinion on a side here, and believe this game is adequately priced as it stands.

Given that I lean toward the Giants on the team total early, they have a good chance of winning the game. Still, Anthony DeSclanfani is getting a little too much of a price bump for me, with looming negative regression to come. I made this game a coin-flip, so taking a price around -120 is too much juice for me.

There are trends in favor of both teams today. The Mets have killed righties so far this season, and are now 6-0 against them in their last six games. At the other end of the spectrum, New York is just 2-5 in its previous seven games in San Francisco.

Mets vs Giants Over/Under analysis

We have a total team bet and have no interest in the entire game total here. With that said, though, I think another market is worth a play here. That's an excellent old first-inning run-scored bet.

You should always shop around, especially with a number in a derivative market such as this, but the best number I've found is -118 on FanDuel, so I'm placing a unit on it. We have little idea how Lucchesi will perform tonight, but we should be okay if he struggles early. I identified that in my above handicap, and it applies to this handicap as well.

As for the entire game total, it's priced right. The Giants have had some offensive success, but I don't know if I can say the same for the other side. Regression is coming for DeSclafani, but it's difficult to predict when. The weather could be advantageous to the offenses, but it's not enough to push me over the edge into making a bet.

I projected the number at nine, and that's about where you can find it, depending on the book. There are a few 8.5s, but they are all at -115. I would need +100 or better to have action.

In a potentially volatile situation, stick to isolating one team at a lower number.

Mets vs Giants game info

Mets vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joey Lucchesi (0-0, 0.00 ERA): As previously noted, this will be the first start for Lucchesi in the majors in nearly two years after a successful recovery from Tommy John surgery. Expectations for Lucchesi are high, but it's hard to predict how he'll fare in his first start back. Lucchesi last pitched in the majors during Spring Training in March. Both starts were one inning and yielded multiple runs (two total in the first start and three earned runs in the second). After that, it was a rehab assignment in Syracuse. His last start was his best when he went six scoreless innings, producing a 1.15 WHIP.

Anthony DeSclafani (1-0, 1.42 ERA): It's been a great start to the season for DeSclafani. He's 1-0 and has been brilliant in all three starts that he's taken the field. He did surrender two earned runs to the Detroit Tigers in his last outing, but it came after another six-inning start. The other two starts preceeding that saw the righty give up just one earned run. You do worry about a few things, though. One is the hard-hit rate. It's one of the worst in the league, and it hasn't hurt him yet. There's also the expected ERA over three looming in the background. At some point, these things are going to show up.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants

Weather

Pages related to this topic