It was a 1-2 day here yesterday as Sean Burke dealt but didn't get enough Ks, while — despite a loss — I'd take Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 outs at +185 on Opening Day every single time. Today is a smaller slate, so pickings are slimmer.
These are my favorite MLB picks and pitcher props for Friday, March 28.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: March 28
Gausman Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at BetMGM)
Pepiot to record the win (+155 at bet365)
Taillon Under 16.5 outs (-135 at DraftKings)
Today’s best SP angles
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
The angle: Kevin Gausman has more paths for fewer outs in his first start.
The move: Kevin Gausman Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at BetMGM)
THE BAT is projecting a generous 93 pitches for Kevin Gausman, but he is expected to not be efficient with only 14 outs recorded, 4.67 hits allowed, and 2.52 earned runs. Bettors saw what this Baltimore lineup can do to right-handed pitching even without Gunnar Henderson in yesterday's 12-2 win.
Additionally, the Toronto Blue Jays used some mop-up arms, so John Schneider might want to get his A-bullpen in today, regardless of Gausman's effectiveness.
The Toronto starter is coming off his worst season since 2019 and never completed more than nine outs in any of his spring games (three).
Rockies vs. Rays
The angle: The Rays project as the highest-scoring team in baseball today, and Ryan Pepiot projects as the least-hit starter.
The move: Ryan Pepiot to record the win (+155 at bet365)
Ryan Pepiot is projected for just 1.62 runs allowed on 3.5 hits. The Tampa Bay Rays also are the betting favorite to lead the day in runs scored, per DraftKings. This looks like a great spot to get the Tampa starter to record a win at a good price vs. Kyle Freeland and his projected 2.71 earned runs, which are the second most today.
The hardest thing here will be to get 15 outs and be eligible for the win. However, with Covers' MLB prop projections showing just Over six punchouts, Pepiot should get those five innings in even at 90 pitches.
The Colorado Rockies lineup is horrendous and even worse away from Coors. The Rays are -140 on the -0.5 F5 Run Line. His Under 3.5 hits allowed at -120 is also showing a lot of expected value.
Who doesn't want action on the only afternoon game on a Friday?
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: Craig Counsell has had a very short leash on his early-season starters.
The move: Jameson Taillon Under 16.5 outs (-135 at DraftKings)
The Chicago Cubs' second-year manager has kept things tight with his pitching staff so far this year. Justine Steele went 77 pitches yesterday following five innings and a 7-3 lead. This was after he threw just 67 pitches in Tokyo. In the Cubs' first game of the year, Shota Imanaga went just 12 outs on 69 pitches despite being in line for a potential win.
Looking back at last year, his starters threw 67, 72, and 85 (12 outs) over the first weekend of the year. He likes to keep the arms fresh, and Jameson Taillon has not had the healthiest of careers. His outs-recorded prop is in no-man's land at 16.5, but I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 15.5 with plus money to the Under. Both offenses were rolling last night, and the Arizona Diamondbacks could knock him around.
Taillon projects for just 15.5 outs on 86 pitches and the most earned runs of any starter today at 2.79. He went just 73 pitches in his opener last year (15 outs vs. the Marlins) and went 69 pitches and 13 outs in an exhibition game vs. the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB in Japan on March 16.
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