Mets vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: deGrom Returns to Mow Down Washington

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals begin Game 2 of their three-game series tonight after an eventful afternoon.

With Juan Soto and Josh Bell set to leave Washington for the San Diego Padres, the Nats can now start looking entirely to the future. And that now includes trying to even up this series without their services. Last night, Washington fell by a score of 7-3, and Max Scherzer captured his seventh win.

Who will prevail in the second game of this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals on Tuesday, August 2.

Mets vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened up with the Mets as massive -280 favorites. Since then, they've taken an enormous amount of money with the market assuming the fates of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They have been bet down to -340 at most spots, with the Nationals returning at around +280

The total opened up at 8.0 and has stayed the same since.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Nationals predictions

• Prediction: Mets F5 -1.5 (-130)
• Prediction: Nationals F5 TT Under 1.5 (-165)
• Best bet: SGP: Nats TT Under + deGrom Over 6.5 Ks (+300)

Picks made on 8/2/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Nationals game info

• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network

Mets vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jacob deGrom (0-0, 0.00 ERA): By now, you probably know that deGrom is set to make his first start of the 2022 MLB season tonight. The star pitcher is expected to ground anywhere from four to six innings depending on his stress level as he works his way back from an injury. When healthy, deGrom could be the best starting pitcher the Mets have. Unlike fellow ace Max Scherzer, he doesn't have the barrel issues that usually come with a high-volume fast-ball pitcher. Last season, deGrom posted the highest K and Chase rates in baseball. He went 7-2 and had an ERA just over a shade of one, making him a contender for the title of the best pitcher in baseball. 

Cory Abbott (0-0, 2.25 ERA): A storyline that will go under the radar in this matchup is that the Nationals will be countering deGrom with a pretty good pitcher in their own right. Abbott will only be expected to go a few innings as this looks like a bullpen game, but he should offer a solid showing. We don't have a ton of data on Abbott, but it does appear there may be something there for the Nationals to work with. In his three appearances this season, he has posted a .86 xERA and a .132 wOBA. So far, Abbott has done a terrific job of inducing soft contact with a hard-hit rate and exit velocity that all rank in the upper quadrant of baseball. Again though, the data is small, and sweeping conclusions are unwise.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The New York Mets have won six games in a row. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals

Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run Line analysis

What a fun game this is to handicap because of all the unknowns. We don't know precisely how Jacob deGrom will respond right off an injury. We don't know exactly what the Nationals lineup will look like as they are tasked with calling up prospects to replace Soto and Bell. We don't even know exactly what the Nationals' pitching throughout the game will look like as it appears to be a bullpen game.

With that all being said, I have to lean on history. I'll take the Mets.

There's not a bunch of lineup data or numbers to handicap for this one. Primarily because with so many moving parts, that data would be pretty flawed and not bear much on the game. What we should expect though, is for deGrom to have an effective fastball still. That's a problem for this Washington lineup.

Without Soto and Bell in the lineup, the Nationals could have as many as five players in their order with a whiff rate over the league average. That spells trouble when facing one of baseball's most swing-and-miss pitchers. 

It's hard to put too much stock into Washington's pitching options. There's not much info out there on what we should expect in what certainly appears to be a bullpen game. It is shuffling its roster throughout the day, and some of those moves could mean some arms aren't available tonight.

But in reality, it's all fruitless. deGrom, even if he's rusty, is set up perfectly to mow through this batting order, and that's the crucial part of all this.

I'm confidently grabbing the Mets in the first-five market once again tonight. My projections aren't seeing much of an edge, but the handicap suggests otherwise. 

Prediction: Mets first five innings -1.5 (-130 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Another market, another high degree of unpredictability, and another place where we'll lean on Jacob deGrom. I'm looking to target the Under on the first five team total for the Nationals here. 

So often in baseball handicapping, it has become commonplace to fade an ace with their first start back from rehab. Quite often, I have been part of those fades. Sometimes, it has been a profitable strategy. However, picking your spots is essential, and this doesn't seem like the place to do that.

This Washington lineup is awful against the fastball, as I've previously highlighted, but its chase rate makes it more vulnerable tonight. It's in the Top 10 of baseball and will be worse without the players above. That adds another dynamic to the already tricky matchup for Nationals hitters.

By now, you should be sensing a theme. 

Yes, deGrom's rust level is unknown, and he may only go five or so innings, but this matchup is a dream. First, we have a team that doesn't hit the fastball well, which is deGrom's favorite pitch. We have a team with an exceptionally high K rate against those pitches, which is deGrom's most typical method of getting a batter out.

Lastly, we have a team who chases pitches a lot, and deGrom historically has produced one of the highest chase rates year in and year out. We're fading the Nationals tonight.

Prediction: Nationals' first five team total Under 1.5 (-165 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Let's get creative and find some value.

I'm a bit hesitant to attack deGrom's strikeout props alone fully. There's too much uncertainty about how deep he'll go, which takes me away. However, I become more interested when I can pair it with something else to get a little more value. I will again pair it with the Nationals' team total in this case. 

Surprisingly, Washington struck early on the scoreboard last night for three earned runs in the first five innings. A deep dive into what its done this season shows that more often than not when it does this, it come out relatively flat the next game. We're going to bank on that flatness lasting throughout the game, given the circumstances and the matchup. 

Pick: SGP: Nationals' team total Under 1.5 + deGrom Over 6.5 strikeouts (+300 at DraftKings)

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