The New York Mets and Washington Nationals wrap up a three-game set in the nation's capital on Thursday afternoon. These NL East foes have split the first two contests in this series and MLB betting odds hit the board with New York installed as a -165 road favorite for the finale.
Here are our best free Mets vs. Nationals MLB picks and predictions for May 12.
Mets vs Nationals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Mets favored at around -165 and the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money has come in on the Nationals, with the line now sitting at Mets -161 with some books going as low as -155. The total has stayed the same and is juiced towards the Over in the neighborhood of -120 to -125.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Nationals predictions
Picks made on 5/12/2022 at 9 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Thursday, May 12, 2022
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, MASN
Mets vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (0-0, 4.92 ERA): Walker has made just three appearances this season — all of them coming against the Phillies. He allowed just two hits across seven scoreless innings in his first two outings but was torched for nine hits and six runs in four innings in his previous start last Thursday.
The 29-year-old went 7-11 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an OBA of .225 in 29 starts with the Mets last year.
Joan Adon (1-5, 6.99 ERA): Adon has struggled in his first full season in the bigs, pitching to a 1.66 WHIP with a .261 OBA in six starts. The 23-year-old is coming off a start against the Angels where he allowed three runs in five innings while striking out six batters.
Adon has impressive velocity on his four-seamer but needs more pitches in his arsenal, and his control needs massive work with 18 walks in 28 1-3 innings of work this year.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Nationals: Alcides Escobar 2B (Probable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss, while the Nationals are 7-23 in their previous 30 games after a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals
Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Nationals upset the Mets 8-3 last night when they sent starter Tylor Megill packing midway through the second inning after putting eight quick runs on the board.
That continues Washington's recent run of red-hot hitting, with the Nats second in the majors in OPS (.795) over the last two weeks. The Nationals will need to keep mashing because they haven't been getting any consistency from their rotation or their bullpen.
Today, they'll start rookie Joan Adon, who has pitched to a 6.99 ERA in six starts and surrendered four runs in 4 1-3 innings against the Mets back on April 9. Adon has major control issues, which will be a problem against a Mets lineup that doesn't chase pitches.
The Mets didn't have much success cashing in runs last night, but they rank seventh in the majors in OPS (.715). They are currently atop the NL East with a 21-11 record thanks to some spectacular starting pitching, but today they'll give the pill to Taijuan Walker, who came off the IL just two weeks ago and struggled in his previous start.
That said, Walker is a proven veteran with a solid track record, and while he's not a Cy Young-caliber starter, he's still more reliable than Adon. The Mets bullpen has also been much better than Washington's. New York's relievers have pitched to a collective 1.13 WHIP (fifth-best in the majors) with a .201 OBA (fourth) while Nats relievers have a 1.39 WHIP (26th) with an OBA of .253 (28th).
Ultimately, these teams are on opposite ends of the standings for good reason. The Mets have World Series aspirations while the Nats are in full rebuild mode. Back the Mets to bounce back with a win today.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Not only has Adon been consistently getting smacked around in his starts, but the analytics suggest that he's been fortunate not to have allowed even more runs. Opposing batters have a sweet spot percentage of 40% and .595 expected slugging against the rookie, with both numbers ranking near the bottom of the majors among all qualified pitchers.
The Mets have been solid at the dish for most of the year, with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor providing pop and Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo doing an excellent job of getting on base. They should be in line for a bigger game today after a quiet performance against a subpar starter last night.
With Josh Bell and Juan Soto leading the way, the Nats have been raking over the last couple weeks, averaging 6.18 runs over their last 11 games. With the Over going 7-3-1 during that span, we're leaning towards the Over tonight.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-118 at Coolbet)
Best bet
We like the Over in this game but the Mets' strong bullpen has us liking the first five innings Over even more. Not only is Adon in the bottom 10% of pitchers in the majors in xERA, barrel percentage, whiff rate, and chase rate, but Washington manager Dave Martinez looks dedicated to the rebuild and has been giving him a fairly long leash even when the youngster gets himself into trouble early.
We'll fade Adon and back the surging Nationals lineup and expect one of those sides to lead to some early runs.
Pick: First five innings Over 4.5 (-120 at bet365)
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