Mets vs Padres Picks and Predictions: New York State of Mind in SoCal

The New York Mets travel south to continue their road trip, this time facing the San Diego Padres for a three-game series after winning back-to-back games against the Dodgers over the weekend.

The Padres, who are two games behind Los Angeles, have won their last three and will be trying to gain more ground in the division race. 

Who will keep their modest winning streak alive? Find out our thoughts with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Padres on Jun 6. 

Mets vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened as the -118 favorite but have since dropped to -110 with the Mets at -105. The total opened at 5.5 runs and has since shot up to 7.5. The Under and Over are each at -105 at this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Padres predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (-105)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Carrasco Over 5.5 Hs allowed (-105)

Picks made on 6/6/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Monday, June 6, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports San Diego

Mets vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (6-1, 3.63 ERA): The Mets turn to their defacto staff ace in Carrasco, who has been money since Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are out with injuries. Carrasco has won five of his last six, allowing 12 runs in that span. Carrasco went five innings, blanking the Nationals and allowing just four hits in his last start. 

Blake Snell (0-2, 4.80 ERA): Snell has shown improvement with each start coming off the injured list. His last outing six days ago, the 2018 Cy Young winner went six innings, allowing two runs on two hits and struck out six. Snell depends on his fastball, which he is employing about 55% percent of the time, before going to a slider and curve. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Max Scherzer SP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), James McCann C (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Travis Jankowski RF (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Wil Myers LF (Out), Matt Beaty 1B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 4-1 in the last five meetings against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres

Mets vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

After getting splitting four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets travel two hours south to start a three-game series with the Padres. They will face lefty Blake Snell while sending Carlos Carrasco to the mound to try and win their third in a row. 

Snell is less than a month removed from coming off the injured list and is still trying to find his form. He has pitched better in every game he has started but still has a 4.80 ERA. He does, however, have a WHIP of 1.07 thanks to allowing just eight hits in 15 innings. His Achilles' heel is the free pass, as it has been for much of his career. 

Another problem is Snell is getting little run support from the Padres. In his three games back since his return, San Diego bats have provided him with just three runs. The Padres offense is 21st in batting average, 19th in hits, 15th in runs, and 15th in RBI on the season. 

Conversely, the Mets have one of the most powerful offenses in baseball. They rank first in RBI, hits, on-base percentage, and batting average and are second in runs scored. 

They are also effective against left-handed pitchers, going 5-1 in their last six vs. southpaws.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

The Padres bats are anemic, though they did show some life in their weekend series against the Brewers where they scored 21 runs in four games. But they managed just seven runs in three games against the St. Louis Cardinals in the series before that. 

They are averaging 4.2 runs a game, but that number comes down by about a run against the cream of the crop. In April, the Padres hosted the Dodgers for three games and scored six runs. Last month, they faced the Brewers and scored nine runs in four games.

Manny Machado, who the Friars leaned heavily upon during the first month or so of the season has seen his numbers dry up in recent weeks. Machado was batting .386 after May 11. Since then, he's hit .256 with two home runs and 10 RBI in 20 games, dropping his season average to a still-respectable .333.

On Monday, they face Carrasco, who has a 3.63 ERA and has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last six games. He's also gone at least five shutout frames in two of those starts.

The Mets offense is powerful, but not unstoppable. Snell should be able to keep them off balance for the first five innings as he continues to find his top form. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Best bet

While Carrasco has limited opponents in runs, that hasn’t been the case with hits allowed. The right-hander has given up 43 hits in his last seven, an average of 6.1 per game. 

Carrasco has allowed six or more hits in six of his last seven starts. In two of those contests, he allowed eight and nine hits. The four hits allowed in his last start was his lowest total since his second game of the season, but that seems to be more of an anomaly than a trend as he appeared to lose his command, issuing a season-high five walks.

We like the Padres to run up the hit count with the likes of Machado and Eric Hosmer (.296 batting average) leading the charge.

Pick: Carlos Carrasco Over 5.5 hits allowed (+100)

Pages related to this topic