Mets vs Padres Picks and Predictions: San Diego Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching

It’s the rubber match between two National League contenders when the New York Mets face off against the San Diego Padres.

Each team took a game in convincing fashion with the Mets winning the opener 11-5 before the Padres responded with a 7-0 victory in Game 2. The finale has the makings of a much closer matchup as Chris Bassitt toes the rubber against former teammate Sean Manaea.

So, where is the baseball betting edge? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Padres on Wednesday, June 8.

Mets vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened this NL matchup as -115 home favorites and have seen the early action, moving the line to -135. The total hit the board at 7.0 with that number juiced slightly to the Over as of Wednesday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Padres predictions

• Prediction: Mets ML (+115)
• Prediction: Over 7 (-115)
• Best bet: Bassitt Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125)

Picks made on 6/08/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Wednesday, June 8, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports

Mets vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (4-3, 3.74 ERA): Bassitt hit a bit of a rough patch at the end of May but has been a solid acquisition for the Mets, even more so when you consider all the injuries in New York's rotation. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts.

Sean Manaea (2-3, 3.77 ERA): Manaea has arguably been just as good an acquisition for San Diego. The lefty has recorded eight quality starts over his first 10 games as a member of the Padres and is striking out batters at the highest rate of his career.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Pete Alonso 1B (Questionable), Starling Marte OF (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), James McCann C (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis SS (Out), Wil Myers OF (Out), Robert Suarez RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven games when facing a southpaw on the mound, while the Padres are 2-6 in their last eight home games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres

Mets vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Padres are on a nice little run, winners of four of their last five, all coming against NL contenders in the Mets and Milwaukee Brewers. That stretch has allowed them to stay within striking distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West. 

But something you may not know about the Padres if you don’t follow them every day is that they really struggle against right-handed pitchers. San Diego, somewhat shockingly, ranks 25th in batting average (.228) and 28th in OPS (.644) vs. righties this season. Now, the Padres go up against a solid one in Bassitt.

The right-hander has given the Mets’ rotation a much-needed boost with the injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Bassitt is pitching to an expected ERA of 3.69 while holding opponents to an expected batting average of .235.

Bassitt will go up against his former teammate in Oakland, Sean Manaea. The lefty has been just as solid, with an xERA of 3.49 and also allowing limiting opposing teams to a .235 average. 

The Mets have done a relatively better job against lefties than the Padres do against righties. New York ranks 14th in batting average and 16th in OPS versus southpaws this season while ranking in the Top 10 in strikeout rate against lefties. 

While the starters in this matchup are close to a toss-up, the Mets have the more reliable lineup and arguably the better bullpen as well. Give us the plus money with the underdog.

Prediction: Mets (+115 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

On the surface, this matchup has pitcher’s duel written all over it, but the total still may be a touch too low.

For starters, even though the Padres have had their troubles with right-handers, they have done a better job of cashing in runners lately, plating 5.8 runs per game over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Mets are the second-highest scoring team in the big leagues at 5.18 runs per game.

Although Manaea has been solid, he’s allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts. There should be enough offense in this game to sneak Over the total.

Prediction: Over 7 (-115 at Caesars)

Best bet

The biggest edge in this game is the Padres’ struggles against right-handers, so we’re looking towards a Bassitt prop for our best bet.

Bassitt has done a great job all season of limiting damage. He has allowed five hits or fewer seven times in his 11 starts this season, and two of those games he didn’t were against a scrappy Giants team that has his number.

With the Padres hitting just .228 against right-handers this season, Bassitt looks like a good bet to stay Under his hits allowed a total of 5.5 tonight in San Diego.

Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at DraftKings)

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