Mets vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Teeing Off on Taijuan Walker

After winning three of four in their season-opening series with the Washington Nationals, the New York Mets will now look to beat up on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets are certainly hoping to make this a productive series, as they can make an early statement in the NL East with a good couple of days.  

Will New York stay hot and find a way to earn a big win over Philadelphia on Monday? Check out our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out. 

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Mets vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mets were +129 when this game became available, and you can still find them at +128. However, New York has jumped to +140 on two different sites as of early Monday afternoon. The total, which opened at 9, is up to 9.5 on some books at this writing, with most having juice on the Over — which could mean that most books will follow suit and bump it up to 9.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Phillies predictions

• Prediction: Phillies ML (-147)
• Prediction: Over 9 (-115)
• Best bet: Schwarber Over 0.5 HR (+280)

Picks made on 4/11/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mets vs Phillies game info

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, April 11, 2022
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Mets vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (2021: 7-11, 4.47 ERA): Last year was an interesting one for Walker, who was excellent from April to June and then really struggled down the stretch. New York will be hoping that the 29-year-old can get off to another hot start, and he definitely has the talent to turn in a complete season. He did, however, give up six earned runs over seven innings in spring training. 

Ranger Suarez (2021: 8-5, 1.36 ERA): Suarez spent parts of last season as a reliever, but he was exceptional once he made his move to the starting rotation, notching a complete-game shutout — an increasingly rare feat in MLB — against the Pirates in September. The 26-year-old will now look to become a mainstay for Philadelphia, and he’ll have a chance to make his mark in this divisional game. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Edwin Diaz RP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), Jake Reed RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out).
Phillies: Mickey Moniak OF (Out), Rafael Marchan C (Out), Ryan Sherriff RP (Out), Odubal Herrera OF (Out), Sam Coonrod RP (Out), Zack Wheeler SP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine games as home favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.

Mets vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Not only are the Phillies 7-2 in their last nine games as home favorites, but they’re also 6-2 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. Also, until last season, Walker had struggled mightily against lefty hitters throughout his career, and this Philadelphia lineup has some fearsome lefty bats lurking. 

Kyle Schwarber's track record against Walker speaks for itself as the slugging southpaw has actually hit five homers off him in his career, and he’s likely to be the leadoff man for the Phillies tonight. That'll give him some extra at-bats against a guy he clearly has an edge against. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are both capable of doing some damage here as well.

On top of the lefties, the Phillies roster is just a combined 29-for-95 (.328) with four doubles, 10 homers, and 18 RBIs against Walker. These Philadelphia players like something about this matchup, so the Phillies could be in line to score plenty of runs. 

If Philadelphia's offense shows up, Suarez should have no trouble getting his team across the finish line. The lefty only pitched 4.2 innings against the Mets last season, and he gave up just two earned runs against them over what was ultimately three appearances.

However, Suarez could be on the verge of a breakout year for Philadelphia. The 26-year-old was excellent towards the end of last season when he was made a full-time starter. He was also sharp in Spring Training, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings of work. 

The Mets also scored fewer runs than all but four teams against left-handed pitchers in 2021, and they had the 10th-worst batting average in baseball against southpaws. 

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-147 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

The Phillies have a good chance to do some real damage against Walker, and that alone would make it hard for this Over not to hit. Philadelphia has the right balance of players to go out and score five or six runs, and New York is definitely capable of getting a decent amount of runs on the scoreboard. 

Even if the Mets were to have trouble scoring against Suarez, the Phillies had the sixth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball last season. They’ve also already given up five earned runs in this young season, so it's not like Philadelphia is in the clear from a bullpen standpoint — even if the team did address that group in the offseason. 

Also, the fact that this total is already up from 9 to 9.5 in some places could mean that there are some sharp bettors with the ability to move lines who believe this will be a high-scoring game. That’s also why there’s juice on the Over at 9, as the oddsmakers are looking to protect themselves. 

Prediction: Over 9 (-115 at BetMGM)

Best bet

You won’t find us telling you to take a home run prop very often, but this one is definitely worth sprinkling at least a quarter of a unit on tonight. Schwarber, who has started just 2-for-10 to open the year, has absolutely crushed Walker in his career. In 10 plate appearances against the righty, Schwarber has five hits and all of them have been homers. 

Of course, that’s not quite as simple as saying there’s a 50% chance that the 29-year-old will go yard tonight, but it is worth taking a shot. These odds are extremely favorable, and one swing of the bat can make this a really profitable game. It’ll also just be a fun play to root for, as it's not often you'll be on something like this. 

Pick: Kyle Schwarber Total home runs Over 0.5 (+280 at DraftKings)

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