The Philadelphia Phillies erased a 4-0 deficit on Monday, coming back to earn a 5-4 victory over the New York Mets on the back of a five-run eighth. The Phillies are now 3-1 in this young season, and these meetings with a division rival can loom large down the line.
Will Philadelphia ride the momentum of that comeback win and make it back-to-back wins over New York? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
Mets vs Phillies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as +138 underdogs against the Phillies, but they’re now down to as low as +120 on one sportsbook. Meanwhile, the best you'll find them at is +137 on WynnBet.
The total, which opened at 9, is already down to 8.5 on almost every sportsbook. The Over is, however, being juiced a little, so it could end up moving back up to 9.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Phillies predictions
Picks made on 4/12/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Mets vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Mets vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tylor Megill (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Megill was electric in his first start of the season, as he recorded six strikeouts in five shutout innings against the Washington Nationals. The young righty has flashed a major uptick in velocity early in the season, which significantly changes his long-term outlook as a starter.
Zack Wheeler (2021: 14-10, 2.78 ERA): Wheeler turned in his best season yet in 2021, as he had career-best marks in ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Wheeler’s 5.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio was also the best of his career (and sixth among all qualified starters), and he has finally found a way to put it all together in the last couple of years. The 31-year-old is now a legitimate ace in Philadelphia.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Edwin Diaz P (Questionable), Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out).
Phillies: Mickey Moniak OF (Out), Brian Marconi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are just 2-5 in their last seven games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Last season, Tylor Megill's fastball averaged 94.6 mph and the highest speed he hit on the season was 97.6 mph. In his first start of 2022, Megill hit 99 on the gun and looks like a completely different pitcher. The 6-foot-7 starter is now showing New York that he could be a huge part of the team’s future, and that increase in velocity is going to make him a force immediately.
With that in mind, you shouldn’t get too used to seeing New York as this big of an underdog when he’s on the mound. That makes it hard to lay off the Mets, especially against a Phillies offense that looked rather lousy until finally breaking through in the eighth inning on Monday night.
We’re still early in the season, but Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto are all hitting below .200, with Realmuto worst of the group with a .154 average. Of course, all three can be counted on to turn things around rather quickly, but it’s hard to pick them in a game like this until we see them get it going.
The Mets lineup is looking as dangerous as it has in quite some time, and that’s with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso starting relatively slowly. New York is deep with guys that can produce at the plate now, and they now face what should be a rusty version of Zack Wheeler.
The righty was dealing with a sore shoulder during Spring Training, so he hasn’t faced live major-league batters since last season. He should eventually settle in, but it’s not going to be easy for him. If there's a time worth fading Wheeler, it's tonight.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (+137 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
This total has moved down since it opened at 9 and a majority of bets are coming in on the Under thus far. However, the Over is definitely looking like a good value.
While Megill looked excellent in his first start, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Phillies plate a few runs against him. Sure, the righty’s velocity is up this season, but he did give up four earned runs in 4.2 innings in his only appearance against them last season — a game that was also in Philadelphia.
Overall, Megill was a mixed bag in his rookie season. He started his career with seven consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer. That ultimately gave way to some rough outings, including that start against the Phillies, down the stretch. He also completed seven innings in just one of his 18 starts, giving way to the Mets bullpen. While New York's reliever corps is solid, it may still be without closer Edwin Diaz, so if Megill is on a short leash, the Phillies could get a chance to take some hacks at a diminished pen.
The real reason to back the Under would be if you expect Wheeler to dominate the Mets in this start. The righty was 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts against New York last season, so it’s not crazy to think that he’s capable.
However, the Mets have improved their offense and Wheeler also happens to be making his first start since September. That’s true of most pitchers at this point, but the ace didn’t get to face anybody in Spring Training. That could allow the Mets to pounce on him early, and that would put Over bettors in a great position considering both these teams have questionable bullpens.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at WynnBet)
Best bet
The Mets aren’t exactly likely to score a run in the first, but it is a little surprising to see them at +295 to do so.
Sure, Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s on his game, but there are too many questions about how effective he'll be right out of the gate. The righty experienced shoulder soreness after throwing a career-high in innings last season, and his lack of a normal offseason put him a bit behind schedule this season. Otherwise, he'd have been a lock to start one of Philly's first two games of the season.
Look for Wheeler to struggle to find the strike zone a little early on, and then it’ll be up to the Mets to come through and get somebody home. However, at these odds, it is definitely worth taking a shot on, especially with Wheeler working his way back from a mild shoulder injury.
Pick: Mets to score in first inning — Yes (+295 at Unibet)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Mets vs. Phillies picks, you could win $172.77 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
