The Philadelphia Phillies have settled into a win-one, lose-one pattern – and they'd love nothing more than to break that trend Saturday against the New York Mets.
The Phillies have alternated losses and wins without fail over their previous 10 games, having extended that streak with a 2-1 triumph over the Mets in Friday's opener of a three-game weekend series at Citizens Bank Park.
So, who has the MLB betting edge for Game 2? Check out our free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Phillies on Saturday, May 1, with first pitch scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia went up Friday evening as a -120 favorite at FanDuel, slid a few cents to -116, peaked a couple of times at -130 and is -122 as of 3:30 p.m. ET today. The Phillies are attracting 63 percent of tickets and 54 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total bounced between 8 and 7.5 multiple times and is now 7.5 (Over -120), with 59 percent of bets/53 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.14 ERA): Walker has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets through his first four starts of the season, limiting opponents to a .171/.314/.214 slash line over 21 innings. He is, however, living up to his surname a little too closely, having issued 14 free passes to date (including three or more in each of his previous three starts).
Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.13 ERA): The former Mets hurler is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the St. Louis Cardinals to one run on a single hit with nine strikeouts over nine sensational innings. That put him back on track following three straight hum-drum starts, including a 6 1/3-inning outing vs. New York in which he surrendered three runs on 10 hits.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Dellin Betances RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Phillies: Bryce Harper RF (Questionable), J.T. Realmuto C (Questionable), Didi Gregorius SS (Out), Jean Segura 2B (Out), Archie Bradley RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Phillies are 14-4 in their last 18 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
This one is close to a toss-up in oddsmakers' eyes, with the Phillies only slight home favorites. Consistency has been a problem for Philadelphia (though some of you might consider their 10-game alternating loss-win streak the pinnacle of consistency), as has run-scoring in general (the Phillies rank 19th in on-base percentage and are tied for 24th in runs scored in the majors).
Fortunately for the floundering Phillies, their Saturday opponent has been even worse at the plate and in the standings. The Mets haven't strung together consecutive victories since a four-game run from April 13-17 (which included a three-game sweep of these same Phillies), and they're slashing .231/.318/.349 with just one player (Pete Alonso) boasting more than two home runs.
This one comes down to the starting pitcher you trust more – and it's hard to ignore just how dominant Wheeler looked last time out. He's a more prolific strikeout pitcher than Walker and has done a better job at limiting opposing baserunners, as well.
The Phillies might be in trouble if this one becomes a battle of the bullpens, but we see Wheeler faring well enough against a disappointing Mets lineup to give Philadelphia a path to victory.
PREDICTION: Phillies (-115)
Over/Under pick
The good times continue for Mets Under bettors, with the team having gone 6-0-1 to the Under in its previous seven games. New York has scored three runs or fewer in eight of its last 11 games overall and squandered one opportunity after another in Friday's series opener, going just 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position while leaving 10 men on base in defeat.
The Phillies haven't been much better in this regard, sitting in the bottom quarter league-wide in runs and managing just three hits Friday night (while going 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position themselves). They're also one of the least clutch teams in baseball through their first 26 games, averaging just 0.92 runs per game over the final three innings (T-24th overall).
The Mets haven't seen more than eight total runs scored in a game since April 21 – and that trend isn't likely to end Saturday.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Mets vs Phillies betting card
- Phillies (-115)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 5/1/2021 at 5:30 a.m. ET
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