Mexico vs USA World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Party in the USA

The World Baseball Classic rolls on with late-night action in Pool C, as Team Mexico battles Team USA.

The Americans are prohibitive favorites to win this group, and they got off to a good start with a 6-2 victory over Great Britain on Saturday night. The Mexicans, meanwhile, were stunned by Colombia in extra innings in their WBC opener, 5-4. 

Can Mexico recover, or will the United States put them in an 0-2 hole in pool play? Find out in our free World Baseball Classic picks and predictions for Mexico vs USA on Sunday, March 12.

Mexico vs USA odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 12, 2023.

Mexico vs USA picks and predictions

A deeper and more talented American team should march out with a 2-0 record in the World Baseball Classic at the expense of Mexico this Sunday night, and they should do it rather easily. 

Left-hander Patrick Sandoval of the Los Angeles Angels has the starting assignment for Mexico against a mostly right-handed USA lineup. That spells trouble for him, as righties hit .271 off Sandoval last year, compared to a .151 mark for left-handed batters. Right-handers were responsible for 28 of the 30 extra-base hits that Sandoval surrendered in 2022, including all eight home runs he served up. 

Left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber played the hero for Team USA on Saturday with a three-run dinger, but perhaps it’s righty masher Pete Alonso who will answer the bell for the Americans tonight after sitting against Great Britain. Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are also among the bevy of power-hitting right-handed options at the disposal of American manager Mark DeRosa.

Nick Martinez from the San Diego Padres will counter for the Americans off a moderately successful 2022 (3.47 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 95 Ks over 106 1/3 innings), his first MLB season since 2017 following a four-year stint in Japan. 

After floating between the Padres rotation and bullpen last year, partially due to injuries, it's logical to expect his outing will be short. Fortunately for Team USA, they have plenty of pitching depth on the roster.

DeRosa deployed only four pitchers last night, starter Adam Wainwright (four innings) included. Kyle Freeland did yeoman’s work, eating up three innings in relief, while Jason Adam and David Bednar split the other six outs. 

Kendall Graveman, Adam Ottavino, and Devin Williams are among the more appealing (and fresh) late-inning options for Team USA tonight. 

The Mexican lineup is fairly weak from a power-hitting perspective, save for Randy Arozarena and Rowdy Tellez. The former homered in the loss on Saturday, while Tellez took an 0-for-5 with four runners left on base. As long as the Americans pitch carefully to these two, they should walk away with a comfortable victory.

My best bet: Team USA alternate run line -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Mexico vs USA moneyline analysis

At worse than -300 on the moneyline, it's hard to say that Team USA is offering much value. However, there’s no value in a losing ticket, so the Americans look like the right side on Sunday night. 

For the reasons I stated above, Team Mexico will have a tough time staying within the run line for this game, let alone have a decent shot to win it outright. The Mexicans might be the more desperate of the two sides, but urgency shouldn’t factor into one’s handicapping in a spot like this. 

National pride is on the line, so whenever one is called upon to work in this game, that person is not simply going to mail it in. There would have been little point in making the commitment to the national team in the first place. 

Losing to Colombia as betting favorites in front of a raucous crowd at Chase Field that was mostly pro-Mexican on Saturday was a bad omen for Team Mexico. 

The game-winning run came via error, but the most jarring moment of the contest for the Mexicans had to be when 36-year-old first baseman Reynaldo Rodriguez – who’s spent three of the last four years playing in the Mexican League – hit a homer off staff ace Julio Urias in the fifth inning.

Mexico vs USA Over/Under analysis

There’s good reason to think that this tilt will be high-scoring.

Team USA scored “only” six runs on Saturday night, but left an additional 12 men on base. Team Mexico was in a similar boat last night, plating four runs while stranding eight runners on the basepaths. 

Arozarena, Joey Meneses, and Austin Barnes all had multi-hit games for Team Mexico on Saturday night. Nolan Arenado had three hits in five trips to the plate for Team USA last night in a game in which seven of the nine men in the lineup had at least one knock. 

Shockingly, the two players that failed to record a hit for Team USA were Trout and Jeff McNeil, the NL leader in batting average a year ago. McNeil getting blanked in the hit column two straight times last season was akin to lightning striking twice in the same spot. 

The Americans could run roughshod against the soft underbelly of the Mexican bullpen, especially if they chase Sandoval early. This unit worked hard last night in the extra-innings loss to Colombia.

Mexico vs USA game info

Mexico vs USA starting pitchers

Patrick Sandoval: Despite a losing record, Patrick Sandoval sported a career-best 2.91 ERA for the Angels last season. His WHIP was a bit high at 1.34, but he allowed only eight homers over 148 2/3 innings. The southpaw tallied 151 strikeouts in 2022. Sandoval worked five innings in Spring Training, with only one run and three hits against to go with six strikeouts. 

Nick Martinez: Nick Martinez had a fairly successful return to MLB after a four-year hiatus last season, injuries aside. He recorded a 3.47 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 106 1/3 innings for the Padres while punching out 95 batters. Martinez looked sharp in Spring Training, allowing only one run over 9 1/3 frames and tallying 11 strikeouts along with a 0.96 WHIP.

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