We're not even a full month into the MLB season and Aaron Judge is already fetching -155 odds to lead the league in home runs.
So, we're looking for value in the MLB odds, trying to see if there are viable alternatives to the New York Yankees' behemoth.
Let's take a look at a few such options fetching longer odds than perhaps they should.
Odds to win 2025 MLB home run title
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
-155 | -155 | -165 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+1000 | +1000 | +700 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
 Brent Rooker |
+1800 | +1600 | +1100 |
 Pete Alonso |
+2000 | +1800 | +1600 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+2000 | +4000 | +3000 |
 Mike Trout |
+2000 | +2000 | +3000 |
 Kyle Tucker |
+3000 | +3000 | +2500 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+3000 | +3000 | +2500 |
 Eugenio Suarez |
+5000 | +3000 | +2000 |
 Cal Raleigh |
+6000 | +7000 | +5000 |
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
+6000 | +6000 | +4000 |
 Junior Caminero |
+6000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Tyler Soderstrom |
+6000 | +6500 | +8000 |
 Corey Seager |
<+7000> | +6500 | +8000 |
| Anthony Santander |
+7000 | +6500 | +5000 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
+7000 | +6000 | +5000 |
| Bryce Harper |
+7000 | +6000 | +5000 |
 Matt Olson |
+7000 | +6500 | +3500 |
| Christian Walker |
+7000 | +6000 | +5000 |
| Juan Soto |
+7000 | +6000 | +3000 |
Odds as of 4-15-2025
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Latest MLB HR title analysis
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is already -155 to lead MLB in home runs after a blistering start to his season, slugging an MLB-best six home runs in 16 games thus far. There is quite clearly little value on betting that number, especially as he hasn't actually hit a long ball in nine games and seven others also have six dingers to date.
Obviously, Judge's pedigree is greater than that of Wilmer Flores or Tommy Edman, both of whom share the lead, so it makes sense that his number is where it is. But there could be value elsewhere.
The three players who are catching my eye, for different reasons, are Mike Trout, Tyler Soderstrom, and especially Junior Caminero.
Trout also has six home runs in the early going, but he is listed as high as +3000 (BetMGM) to lead the bigs in home runs. Injuries have derailed the last few seasons of the future Hall of Famer's career, but the power has not been sapped. He's not running as much, which may spare him from hamstring or wrist issues, and while he's hitting just .196, it's because of an absurdly low BABIP (.132).
Soderstrom is a bit of a wild card, but I love what I see from him so far. Also with six home runs, the A's first baseman has cut down on the strikeouts and is tearing the cover off the ball, ranking in the Top 15 in hard-hit rate.
Caminero is tied for third in hard contact with Judge, though, and he is finding a groove. He's homered in three straight games to bring his season total to four. With the Tampa Bay Rays playing their home games at George Steinbrenner Field, the conditions are perfect for him to continue surging. Soderstrom has a similar storyline, playing his home games at Sacramento.
With Soderstrom and Caminero still trading at +8000 and +15000 at BetMGM, respectively, they have insane value attached.
Covers MLB betting tools
Recent single-season home run leaders
Here are each of the last 10 home run champions:
| Year | Player (No. of home runs) |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (58) |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (54) |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (62) |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero &  Salvador Perez (48) |
| 2020 | Luke Voit (22) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (53) |
| 2018 |  Khris Davis (48) |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton (59) |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo (47) |
| 2015 | Chris Davis (47) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Understanding MLB HR title betting odds
Betting MLB home run title odds is about as simple as it gets. You are just betting on which player will end the regular season with the most home runs in the MLB. HR title betting futures are usually shown in American-style odds and usually look like this:
- Pete Alonso +800
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $800 if Alonso wins the MLB home run title. Now, most of these markets close when the season starts. But some sportsbooks may post updated odds at different points in the season, and if one player has a large lead in home runs you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of their odds:
- Aaron Judge -110
This means that you would need to bet $110 to win $100 on Judge winning the MLB home run title. If you want to see the odds in a different format check out our odds converter tool.
MLB HR Leader FAQ
New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead MLB in home runs.
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge led MLB in home runs with 58. It was the second time he's claimed the MLB home run crown.
After slugging 27 home runs in 2024, New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is the active leader with 429 career long balls. Mike Trout (378) and Paul Goldschmidt (362) are next in line.
The last player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons is Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
