MLB Spring Training is just around the corner, and that means sportsbooks are starting to post a variety of MLB futures odds, including the always-intriguing MLB player props for regular season leaders.
When it comes to pitcher player markets, Gerrit Cole is the name you'll see in all the bright lights. But Cole isn't the only big-name pitcher in town anymore, with Carlos Rodon joining the New York Yankees rotation.
Rodon isn't the only hurler of note that changed locales this offseason either. With so many new faces in new places, we're here to show you there is value on the rubber all over the big leagues in the MLB league leader odds.
Odds to be 2023 wins leader
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole |  New York Yankees |
+1,000 |
| Justin Verlander |  New York Mets |
+1,400 |
| Shane McClanahan |  Tampa Bay Rays |
+1,500 |
| Max Fried |  Atlanta Braves |
+1,500 |
| Julio Urias |  Los Angeles Dodgers |
+1,500 |
| Shane Bieber |  Cleveland Guardians |
+1,600 |
| Sandy Alcantara |  Miami Marlins |
+1,600 |
| Framber Valdez |  Houston Astros |
+1,600 |
| Max Scherzer | New York Mets |
+1,600 |
| Carlos Rodon | New York Yankees |
+1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.
Wins leader analysis
Gerrit Cole is the favorite to lead the MLB in wins this season, but a +1,000 favorite means there is a large range of outcomes on the table. Heck, do you even realize that the Atlanta Braves' Kyle Wright led the MLB in wins last season? He’s +3,500 to do it again this year.
Now, here’s a funny stat about Cole. He’s never led the MLB in wins. He led the AL with 16 in 2021, but he’s only recorded 19 or more wins twice. And while he’s still racking up the Ks, we’ve certainly seen a bit of regression from Cole in the last couple of years. Last season’s 3.50 ERA was his worst since leaving the Pittsburgh Pirates. I would be looking elsewhere in this market.
In the top tier of options, the Los Angeles Dodgers' Julio Urias at +1,500 is worth a look. The lefty led the MLB in wins with 20 in 2021, and followed that up by going 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA last year. Urias is now the unquestioned ace of this Dodgers staff, and at the top of the rotation for a team pegged at an MLB-best 95.5 wins this season.
If you’re looking for a Kyle Wright-type play this season, look no further than the Cleveland Guardians’ Triston McKenzie. The Guardians’ right-hander is coming off a breakout campaign where he pitched to a 2.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’ll be a part of a Cleveland team that should be able to rack up a bunch of wins in a weak AL Central division.
Odds to be 2023 strikeout leader
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees |
+550 |
| Corbin Burnes |  Milwaukee Brewers |
+800 |
| Dylan Cease |  Chicago White Sox |
+1,000 |
| Spencer Strider | Atlanta Braves |
+1,100 |
| Jacob deGrom |  Texas Rangers |
+1,200 |
| Max Scherzer | New York Mets |
+1,300 |
| Aaron Nola |  Philadelphia Phillies |
+1,400 |
| Carlos Rodon | New York Mets |
+1,500 |
| Robbie Ray |  Seattle Mariners |
+1,800 |
| Shane Bieber | Cleveland Indians |
+2,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.
Strikeout leader analysis
No one has struck out more batters over the last five years than Gerrit Cole. He’s led the MLB in strikeouts in two of those seasons, and has punched out at least 243 batters in each of the last four full seasons.
So, it comes as little surprise that at +600, Cole is the betting favorite to lead the MLB in strikeouts once again. And there’s a decent chance he does just that. He was third in the bigs in strikeouts per nine innings, and that is aided by the fact that he just pitches a lot of innings. Cole logged over 200 innings for the fifth time in his career last season, and led the MLB in starts.
Another guy to keep an eye on in this market is Cole’s new teammate, Carlos Rodon. The big lefty is coming off a fantastic season with the San Francisco Giants prior to signing with the Yankees this offseason. Rodon led the MLB in FIP, and more importantly, was tops in strikeouts per nine innings among qualified pitchers. He finished 20 strikeouts behind Cole last season, but missed a couple of outings along the way. All things considered, Rodon’s +1,500 looks more appealing than Cole’s number.
Shohei Ohtani at +2,000 is also intriguing. Getting a price like this on Ohtani to do anything is almost too good to pass up. And now he’s coming off the best pitching season of his career. He was also second in the MLB in strikeouts per nine innings, and despite throwing five fewer starts than Cole, still ranked sixth in total Ks last season.
I’m also a big Cristian Javier guy. He’s on the board at +3,500, but he struck out 194 batters in just 148 2-3 innings pitched last season. He’s expected to take on a larger role in the Houston Astros rotation with Justin Verlander now a member of the New York Mets.
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Odds to be 2023 saves leader
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | New York Mets |
+500 |
| Emmanuel Clase | Cleveland Guardians |
+600 |
| Camilo Doval |  San Francisco Giants |
+700 |
| Jordan Romano |  Toronto Blue Jays |
+800 |
| Josh Hader |  San Diego Padres |
+800 |
| David Bednar |  Pittsburgh Pirates |
+1,000 |
| Ryan Pressly | Houston Astros |
+1,100 |
| Rafael Iglesias | Atlanta Braves |
+1,200 |
| Felix Bautista |  Baltimore Orioles |
+1,700 |
| Kenley Jansen |  Boston Red Sox |
+1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 2023.
Saves leader analysis
What’s in a save? Well, a win for starters (Will Livingston at your service). When looking at the odds for the MLB saves leader, you’ll generally want to start your search with teams that are expected to rack up the wins.
It's not shocking to see Mets closer Edwin Diaz and his awesome walk-up music as the +500 betting favorite to be the MLB saves leader this season. Diaz led the big leagues with a ridiculous 57 saves back as a member of the Seattle Mariners back in 2018. And after some slow seasons with the Mets, he recorded 32 last year.
But that number was actually 10 saves off the pace from last year’s leader, Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. The hard-throwing right-hander has the next-best odds at +600, and should be able to rack up the saves for a Cleveland team that, as I already mentioned, is in a weak division.
Then there is Devin Williams at +2,000. Now that Josh Hader will be closing games for the San Diego Padres this season, Williams is the man for the Milwaukee Brewers. Williams recorded 10 of his 15 saves last season after the All-Star break, and eight after Hader was moved at the trade deadline.
With a devastating changeup and a live fastball, Williams has the tools to lead the league in saves this season.
