The New York Mets earned a 10-0 win over the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, and they will now attempt to go for a three-game sweep when the two meet at Citi Field again this afternoon. New York has to feel pretty good about its chances, as the team is sending a trustworthy veteran to the mound to try and outduel a rookie making his MLB debut.
Will Washington find a way to avoid the sweep? Keep reading our best free MLB picks for our thoughts.
Nationals vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as -225 favorites and have moved as high as -255 by this writing. With that in mind, backing New York might mean that you’ll want to take the 1.5-run spread.
As for the total, the number opened at 9 in this game and hasn't moved.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Nationals vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 6/1/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Nationals vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Wednesday, June 1, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, SNY
Nationals vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Evan Lee (0-3, 3.60 ERA in Double-A): Lee is the third-ranked lefty pitching prospect in the Nationals organization, and he has a 3.60 ERA in seven outings in Double-A this season. Lee has good life on his fastball, which is in the low-to-mid 90s. He also has a really impressive curveball, which sits in the 70s and serves as a good change of speed to fool hitters.
Carlos Carrasco (5-1, 3.98 ERA): Carrasco is coming off a disastrous outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, as he gave up five earned runs in just 5 2-3 innings of work. The Mets did, however, end up winning that game, and that performance shouldn’t impact your views on the righty too much. He’s still enjoying a very nice season, and he also happens to have two solid starts against the Nationals under his belt already.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Mason Thompson P (Out), Sean Doolittle P (Out), Anibal Sanchez P (Out), Ehire Adrianza 3B (Out).
Mets: Travis Jankowski OF (Out), Max Scherzer P (Out), Trevor May P (Out), Tylor Megill P (Out), James McCann C (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out), Sean Reid-Foley P (Out), Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nationals are 14-37 in their last 51 games as underdogs. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets
Nationals vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Nationals couldn’t get anything going at the plate last night as they got absolutely humiliated. Fortunately for Washington, New York is sending another righty to the mound. The Nationals aren’t exactly great offensively, but they are fourth in the league in batting average against righties. They’re also 10th in the league in on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, and Josh Bell and Juan Soto give them two guys that are fully capable of driving in baserunners.
Bell is batting .315 with a .860 OPS vs. right-handers while Soto has hit seven of his nine home runs off righties this season.
Carlos Carrasco has had two good starts against this Nationals team this year, as he has allowed only three earned runs over 12 total innings in two starts. However, the Nationals have now had plenty of time to see him, and these hitters are capable of adjusting. If they can get three or so against the veteran, it might be tough for Washington not to cover the run line.
Evan Lee has had a solid season in the minors thus far, and he has the benefit of having not faced any of these Mets hitters in the big leagues. He could be really nervous in his first start in the pros, but New York also won’t have any idea how to attack him. That means that Lee could get through the first two or three innings without allowing the Mets to do much damage, and then he’ll just need to find a way to hold on from there. It helps that New York’s stellar offense is worse against lefties than it is against righties.
Overall, this is a game the Mets should ultimately win, but the Nationals have a real shot at covering.
Prediction: Nationals +1.5 (+105 at TwinSpires)
Over/Under analysis
The Mets are facing Lee for the first time, so they won’t exactly know how to attack the young lefty. Lee doesn’t have overpowering stuff or anything, but he’ll throw a lot of strikes and try to keep New York off balance with his off-speed stuff. The Mets should eventually find a way to hit him, but that likely won’t happen for a few innings and the lefty is capable of turning in something close to a quality start here.
Meanwhile, Carrasco likely isn’t looking at a start in which he'll get shelled either. He has done well against Washington this season, and he should be able to avoid serious damage.
All in all, this just doesn’t look like a game that will be all that high-scoring. The Mets scored 10 runs on Tuesday, but that was against a struggling Patrick Corbin. Lee, who has never pitched in the majors, is a better option than Corbin at this point. It’s also not easy for teams to go out and play afternoon games after having played the night before, so there could be some drowsiness spreading throughout the dugouts.
Prediction: Under 9 (+100 at BetMGM)
Best bet
While we mentioned Bell and Soto as guys who can produce in this Washington lineup, we could have easily brought up Nelson Cruz. The 41-year-old missed Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury, but he’ll be one of the most dangerous hitters on the Nationals if he’s out there this afternoon.
Cruz is no longer looking like the everyday presence he was a few years back — and for nearly the entirety of his career — but he is still fully capable of having big days at the plate. After a rough April, the veteran slugger was much more proficient at the plate in May, batting .318 with six doubles and a pair of round-trippers in 96 plate appearances, and recently rattled off a nice 10-game hitting streak.
Cruz also happens to have an excellent head-to-head history against Carrasco, as he is 13-for-35 with three doubles, five homers, and nine RBI against the righty. If somebody on Washington is going to come through with some hits in this one, it’s hard to rule out Cruz and his edge in this matchup. You can do a lot worse than grabbing him at -175 to get a hit here.
Pick: Nelson Cruz to record a hit (-175 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Nationals vs. Mets picks, you could win $54.43 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
