It’s a Memorial Day matchup in the National League East when the division-leading New York Mets take on the basement-dwelling Washington Nationals.
New York comes into this one off a sweep of the Phillies to extend its lead in the East to 8.5 games, but Washington is riding some momentum of its own, winning four of its last five. Is it worth laying the juice with the heavily-favored Mets, or do the Nats have value as an underdog?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Mets on Monday, May 30.
Nationals vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened this NL East battle as hefty -180 home favorites but that hasn’t stopped bettors from backing them, getting the line as high as -205 at some sportbooks, with the number settling around -190 as of Monday afternoon. The total hit the board at 8.5 and it is juiced to the Over but there are some books with 9 starting to pop up.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Nationals vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/30/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Nationals vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Monday, May 30, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, SNY
Nationals vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Erick Fedde (3-3, 3.55 ERA): Fedde has been, somewhat surprisingly, solid for the Nationals this season. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts, including in his last two outings against the Brewers and Dodgers.
David Peterson (2-0, 2.16 ERA): Peterson looked like the odd man out in the Mets rotation, but due to all the injuries has been recalled to the big-league squad. The lefty has been mostly solid, never allowing more than four hits and three runs in each of his five starts this year.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Sean Doolittle RP (Out).
Mets: Drew Smith RP (Questionable), Jeff McNeil 2B (Questionable), Brandon Nimmo OF (Questionable), James McCann C (Out), Trevor May RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nationals are 1-6 in their last seven games at Citi Field. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets
Nationals vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
It may just be Memorial Day, but the Mets are extending their lead in the NL East to almost insurmountable following their three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend.
At 32-17, the Mets are 8.5 games clear of the second-place Atlanta Braves and 10.5 ahead of the Phillies and they’ve been able to do so mostly because of an offense that has been one of the most dangerous in baseball.
Led by Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso, New York ranks third in scoring and batting average while ranking fifth in OPS.
What makes the start even more impressive is that Jacob deGrom has yet to play a game and Max Scherzer is now sidelined until July at the earliest. Despite this, the Mets still rank 12th in ERA. Due to all those injuries in the rotation enter David Peterson.
As noted, with the Scherzer signing and trading for Chris Bassitt, Peterson looked like the odd man out. But all the injuries have presented an opportunity for Peterson, and the lefty has taken advantage. He has pitched to an expected ERA of 3.69 and is limiting opponents to an expected batting average of just .236.
Monday, he faces a Nationals team that can be surprisingly scrappy at the dish, particularly against lefties where they rank fifth in batting average and have the league’s lowest strikeout rate. They just don’t have much pop in the lineup outside of Juan Soto, ranking 29th in home runs.
The Nats' biggest problem has been run prevention. Their pitching staff ranks 27th in ERA and 28th in opponent batting average. Luckily for them, they’ll hand the ball to one of their most reliable starters in Fedde. The right-hander only surrendered six runs over his five starts in May.
Unfortunately, Fedde averages just over five innings a start, and this means plenty of work for a bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA and 26th in opponent batting average.
This Mets lineup is relentless and comes at you in waves. Fedde may be able to contain them for a while but the Nats bullpen probably won’t.
Prediction: Mets -1.5 (+110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the early money has been on the Over and we’re inclined to agree.
As mentioned, Fedde has been one of the Nationals' most reliable pitchers this season and has done his best to keep his team in games — but his xERA is a ho-hum 4.17 while surrendering a .266 xBA to opponents.
While he limited the Mets to two runs on five hits over five innings back on April 10, New York’s lineup is in a much better place now and ranks first in batting average, and second in OPS when facing right-handers this season. Then, of course, he’ll have to hand the ball to the Nats’ bullpen.
Meanwhile, Peterson’s return to the Big Leagues was successful in limiting the Giants to two runs on three hits over six innings, but as noted, Washington is really pesky when it comes to facing lefties.
There should be enough scoring in this one to sneak Over the total.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
The Mets and the Nationals have already played seven times this season, with New York winning five of those meetings. It's also important to mention all five victories have been by multiple runs, with the biggest margin being a 5-0 Mets win back on April 9. If you like the favorite to get the job done, and we do, bet them to do it by a couple of runs.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+110 at Caesars)
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