Next MLB Manager Fired Odds: John Schneider on Borrowed Time

We're more than halfway through the 2024 MLB season and no manager has gotten fired yet. It's a similar landscape to 2023 when no team went through a managerial change until the offseason.

Still, MLB odds are on the board for which big-league skipper will next be on the chopping block, including Toronto Blue Jays bench boss, John Schneider.

With the trade deadline looming and playoff races in full swing, it's time to look at which managers should be sweating most. 

Next MLB manager fired odds

Manager	Odds
John Schneider	-175
Bud Black	+400
Skip Schumaker	+500
A.J. Hinch	+900
Pedro Grifol	+1,000
David Bell	+1,000
Mark Kotsay	+1,200
Oliver Marmol	+2,500

Odds as of 7-23.

First MLB manager fired favorites

John Schneider - Toronto Blue Jays (-175)

The failures of the Toronto Blue Jays' season have been well documented. The offense hasn't hit, and the pitching has been worse than it was in 2023 when the team was kept afloat by a supremely healthy rotation and a rock-solid bullpen. 

It doesn't help the Blue Jays appeared to be on the verge of signing Shohei Ohtani (what a wild day that was) only for him to land with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The biggest free-agent acquisition was aging infielder Justin Turner, who started hot before cratering. 

Now, failing to appropriately address the roster and more-or-less running back last year's underachieving lineup with hopes of different results can't be pinned on Schneider. And GM Ross Atkins already pulled the "let's fire our lame duck manager" routine when the club sent Charlie Montoyo packing in 2022. Firing Schneider won't save Atkins, but it also seems extremely unlikely Schneider would remain with the team under a new regime or even if Atkins sticks around after how disappointing this season is.

Simply put, the results on the field have been demoralizing. Search "Blue Jays" on Twitter, and it's a bad scene. With rumors about potentially trading Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting louder and more ubiquitous by the day, I don't see a future with Schneider installed as the bench boss.

With the trade deadline a week away, the front office will probably wait until August to pull the trigger. It's also entirely possible the coaching staff stays put through to the end of the season, though if they're going to clean house, it would be a good idea to give the new crew a chance to get its feet wet at the tail end of a lost season to better assess what direction to take in 2025.

Bud Black - Colorado Rockies (+400)

Only three National League managers (Torey Lovullo, Brian Snitker, and Dave Roberts) and two AL skippers (Kevin Cash and Scott Servais) have had longer tenures with their current teams than Bud Black has with the Colorado Rockies, and Lovullo was hired by the Diamondbacks just two days before him.

Look, everyone knew the Rockies were going to be bad in 2024, just like they knew they were going to be bad in 2023. They'll definitely be bad in 2025 and probably far beyond then, as well. 

Firing Black will neither make this team better nor worse. However, the same can be said for keeping him around. And there is only so much third-overall draft pick Charlie Condon will be able to do between the time when he actually reaches the majors and inevitably gets traded to a contender about five years or so later.

For what it's worth, Black and Rockies owner Dick Monfort were discussing a contract extension for the skipper before the season began. It seems unlikely that so much would change since then for Monfort to suddenly go a different direction. 

Skip Schumaker - Miami Marlins (+500)

It's been a wild, chaotic time for the Miami Marlins, and it predates the regular season. Remember, previous general manager Kim Ng left when it became apparent the team wanted to install a president of baseball operations above her in the front office hierarchy. This came after the Marlins made the playoffs in 2023. In the aftermath of Ng's departure, the club eliminated Skip Schumaker's option for 2025, meaning his contract expires after this season.

Schumaker was apparently displeased by Ng being forced out in favor of Peter Bendix, which could indicate his time in South Beach will ultimately be brief.

I'm tempted to earmark this as the best value play on the board, but the Marlins might simply be content in letting the problem take care of itself by waiting until the offseason. If they had a replacement candidate in mind right now, there's no real reason to keep Schumaker aboard the sinking sunken ship. The Marlins are 35-65, which is the worst record in the NL and second-worst in MLB, behind only the unmitigated disaster that is the Chicago White Sox.

Jazz Chisholm, their biggest star and best player, is likely to be dealt at the trade deadline as Miami once again falls flat on its face into a rebuild. At least the Rockies can blame Coors Field for their shortcomings. 

But while it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Schumaker will not be at the helm in 2025, he might not get fired ahead of time. For our purposes, Schneider remains the most likely option.

Covers MLB betting tools

• MLB odds
• MLB picks
• MLB player props
• World Series odds
• World Series MVP odds
• Best baseball betting sites
• Today’s MLB matchups

The Field

Do we really think Pedro Grifol is getting fired by the White Sox before he's finished just his second season as their bench boss? This team is in total disarray and is about to descend so far into a rebuild that star lefty Garrett Crochet is about to be traded (probably to the Dodgers) despite being under team control through 2026. Similarly to Schumaker, Grifol doesn't have a contract beyond 2024, but that doesn't mean he's going to get kicked to the curb before the season's out.

Oliver Marmol was drawing the second-shortest odds behind Schneider earlier in the season but the St. Louis Cardinals have drastically turned things around and would actually be in the playoffs if the season ended today. He's not getting fired.

The most intriguing name of the rest of the bunch is Detroit Tigers manager AJ Hinch. He has vehemently been against the team trading ace Tarik Skubal, and he was quoted as wanting the Tigers to be buyers at the trade deadline despite being 50-51 and 10 games back from the AL Central lead.

So, a lot will hinge on how the next week goes. If the front office pulls the trigger on a Skubal trade, which would likely correspond with the team being sellers, Hinch's time in Detroit will be nearing its end. If Skubal stays, I have more faith in his tenure lasting beyond this season.

So, if I have to make a prediction, Toronto's John Schneider will be the next manager to go while Hinch is an interesting wild card if things go sideways entering the deadline.

Pages related to this topic