The Toronto Blue Jays desperately need a victory tonight to avoid a sweep against the Baltimore Orioles with a four-game set in the Bronx this weekend. The O’s have taken six of the eight meetings this season and get to face a pitcher who is coming off the IL and might not have a long leash.
If this game is settled in the later innings, Baltimore has the advantage. Find out where our best bets lie with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Jays opened as -170 favorites and have moved as short as -175 overnight. The total sits at 9.0 and is teetering on the Under. Baltimore won as +180 dogs last night and at +140 on Monday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 8/17/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, August 17, 2022
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Sportsnet
Orioles vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Austin Voth (3-1, 3.21 ERA): Voth will look to sweep the Jays and help the O’s with their playoff push. The right-hander owns a 3.30 ERA over his last seven games (six starts) and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts. Voth should have a leash of 75-85 pitches before giving way to one of the best bullpens in baseball. Voth is a K/9 pitcher with great control and keeps the ball in the park. His 5.34 ERA is slightly misleading as he owns a very respectable 3.99 FIP and 4.25 xERA.
Ross Stripling (5-3, 3.16 ERA): Stripling will try to stop the bleeding for the Jays who have dropped the series’ first two games to the Orioles. He missed two weeks thanks to a glute strain and just fired five innings in a Triple-A rehab start and threw 67 pitches. I doubt Stripling will last longer than 15 outs and his total outs market is unavailable because of the uncertainty.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Orioles are 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jays are treading water with a 4-9 SU record this month and a minus-19 run differential. They’re in danger of getting swept by the Orioles who are just a half-game back of them and have to open a four-game set vs. the division-leading Yankees this weekend.
The noise around the team isn’t positive, with the offense scoring 3.3 runs per game over 13 matches in August. They aren’t getting quality starts from their rotation and they’ve already canned their manager Charlie Montoyo. Toronto is hearing this noise and is in a very different spot compared to the Orioles which might be beneficial to today’s visitors.
This is a Baltimore team that despite the winning, isn’t playing with a ton of pressure. Its front office unloaded some of its best talents at the deadline but it's rallied and currently sits 0.5 games out of a playoff spot. It is 10-4 SU in August with a plus-18 run differential.
“We’re having fun right now,” yesterday’s starter Dean Kramer told MLB writer Julia Kreuz last night after a 4-2 win. “Standings or not, we’re having a blast. Every win is another win, then we look up and, hey, we’re in the standings.” That frame of mind is much different than Toronto entering today's matinee.
The Jays had a massive starting pitching advantage last night with Alek Manoah getting the ball and closing as -200 favorites. But after a two-run first inning, the bats dried up yet again and failed to scratch another run in the 4-2 defeat. Toronto sits in the Bottom 10 in wRC+ this month and today’s pitching matchup might not be as favorable as the -175 line indicates.
Stripling will be making his first start after a 15-day IL stint thanks to a glute injury. He threw five innings in a rehab game but tossed just 67 pitches and likely won’t see the order a third time today. Stripling made two starts with new manager John Schneider before the injury and failed to see the order a third time despite decent results and low pitch counts. If Schneider didn’t let him see the 19th batter before the injury, I doubt he’ll see one today.
This game will be settled with the bullpen today as Baltimore starter Austin Voth is projected for just 15 outs. The Orioles’ bullpen ranks first in WAR and still has five arms with sub-2.60 ERAs following a trade deadline where they shipped off Jorge Lopez. The Jays have improved the pen but with the losing, don’t have their best arms in top form.
With the way the Blue Jays are swinging the bat, there isn’t a big advantage for Toronto offensively. The starting pitching is closer than the odds are implying in my opinion and the later innings belong to the Orioles’ pen that has thrown six scoreless innings in the series and has allowed just two hits and a walk.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+150 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
An afternoon getaway game for both clubs and a total of 9.0? Sign me up for an Under.
The Jays’ offense is dormant and has struggled to hit even average starting pitching. They haven’t scored more than three runs in five straight games and can’t even get on base with a .292 OBP during August.
The last time the Jays faced the Orioles at Rogers Centre under the sun, the O’s took a 10-2 win and since then, Toronto has scored just 49 runs over 12 home afternoon games with the Under going 7-5.
The scariest thing for me when betting the Jays’ Unders is their mop-up bullpen who is allergic to throwing up donuts. However, since they have been losing, the best arms will likely get a turn regardless of the score today as Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia haven’t thrown since Saturday.
If both Stripling and Voth can keep things under control, both bullpens will settle this game down like we saw yesterday. Both starters have great walk rates and with Toronto struggling to get traffic on the bases, crooked numbers could be rare today.
Some books have already moved off from the opening total of 9 to 8.5. At 9.0, this is another strong play for me.
Prediction: Under 9 (-114 at BetRivers)
Best bet
The difference between yesterday’s pitching matchup and today’s is worth more than 25 points, in my opinion. Manoah vs. Stripling (coming off the IL) is a huge difference.
Voth’s underlying numbers are much better than his ERA indicates and with Toronto’s lack of contagious hitting, the righty should be able to go through the order twice before handing things off to the best bullpen in baseball, per FanGraphs.
If bettors were on the fence about taking the Orioles last night at +180, today at +150 should be a much easier decision.
The Orioles are for real, and dismissing them just because they're the Orioles doesn't work.
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) August 17, 2022
They're earning it in a way the #BlueJays just aren't right now.
These are two teams with very different mentalities right now, and the Orioles are very dangerous as they have nothing to lose and aren’t grasping for straws like the Jays who have to travel to Yankee Stadium following today’s matinee.
Pick: Orioles moneyline (+150 at bet365)
