The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game set at Progressive Field on Tuesday night. Two months ago, this would have looked like a forgettable matchup but with Cleveland now sitting atop the AL Central and the Orioles surging into Wild Card contention this series features plenty of intrigue.
With both of these clubs turning a tidy profit for bettors since July, we tell you where to put your money in this contest. Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Guardians on August 30.
Orioles vs Guardians odds
This line hit the board with the Guardians installed as -160 home favorites with the Over/Under at 8.5. As of 10 a.m. ET, the line has shortened to Cleveland -150 and the total has ticked down to 8 with the Over juiced at -120.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Orioles vs Guardians predictions
Picks made on 8/30/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Orioles vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Tuesday, August 30, 2022
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, Bally Sports Ohio
Orioles vs Guardians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Spenser Watkins (4-4, 3.96 ERA): Watkins had a brutal rookie campaign in 2021 and pitched to an ugly 6.00 ERA through his first eight starts this year but has managed to turn things around. Since being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk at the end of June, he has a 2.83 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 10 starts. He's coming off a start where he scattered five hits and two runs in six innings of work against the White Sox.
Cal Quantrill (10-5, 3.59 ERA): Quantrill has been giving the Guardians some terrific starts lately. In his last four outings, he had one rough game (surprisingly, against the Tigers) but was lights out in his other three games, holding the Padres, Blue Jays, and Astros to a total of nine hits across 20 innings of shutout ball. The 27-year-old has a 4.32 FIP with a 1.20 WHIP across 24 starts this year.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Orioles are 24-9 in their last 33 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians
Orioles vs Guardians picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It's a dogfight for the Wild Card spots in the American League and despite preseason expectations, the Orioles are right in the thick of it after going 32-16 in their last 48 games. If the regular season ended today, they'd be on the outside of the postseason looking in but they're within three games of all three clubs that currently make the cut.
The Guardians have an almost identical record at 67-59 but due to playing in a weaker division, they are in first place in the AL Central, albeit only 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota.
Cleveland will have Cal Quantrill toeing the rubber today. Quantrill has looked very sharp over the last few weeks but his analytics are concerning. The right-hander does an excellent job of limiting hard contact but he rarely makes batters miss and his expected batting average (.262) and expected ERA (4.39) are subpar.
The Orioles will turn to Spenser Watkins, who has also been putting together quality starts lately but has even worse numbers when it comes to expected batting average (.271) and xERA (4.86).
When it comes to hitting, the O's have a clear edge at plate over the last couple of months. Baltimore is 13th in the majors with an OPS of .717 since the All-Star break and has bumped that number up to .735 this month.
The Guardians are 20th in the majors with a .686 OPS since the All-Star break and have seen that number drop to .661 in August.
Quantrill has a better track record than Watkins over the long term but there hasn't been much separating these two starters lately. The Orioles' advantage at the dish and the fact that they have easily been the most profitable club to back this year (a profit of plus-29 units on the moneyline), has me taking them at +130.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (+130 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Quantrill and Watkins both have mediocre numbers when it comes to FIP and xERA, but they have generally been able to get out of innings unscathed over the last few weeks.
Meanwhile, the bullpens for both clubs have been excellent with Cleveland relievers pitching to a collective ERA of 3.18 and Baltimore's bullpen right behind them at 3.19.
The Guardians lineup also sits dead-last in the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xwOBAcon.
With the Under 16-5-1 in Cleveland's last 22 games overall and the Under cashing in Baltimore's previous five contests, I'm leaning towards the Under in this spot.
Prediction: Under 8 (+100 at William Hill)
Best bet
Cedric Mullins has emerged as Baltimore's best player since the start of 2021. The center fielder has racked up 195 total bases in 123 games this year and has been on fire in August, slashing .315/.380/.506.
There are a few other reasons to like Mullins in this matchup as the left-handed hitter boasts a .458 slugging percentage against righties and he mashes sinkers (.333 BA), which is Quantrill's most common offering.
Mullins also tends to pull the ball towards the right field and Progressive Field has a shallow fence in that direction.
Pick: Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
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