The Boston Red Sox will begin a lengthy five-game homestand against AL East foes the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night. The Sox have caught a bit of fire lately as they've won seven of their last eight.
Baltimore comes into this one with an 18-27 record, last in the AL East. Find out who wins in our free MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Red Sox on Friday, May 27.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The odds for this one were released late last night. As you might expect, the Red Sox opened up as solid favorites at -190, with the Orioles returning at +172. Since then, the board has lit up. The Red Sox have fallen to as low as -170 in some places. The total for this game is one of the highest on the board on tonight's schedule. It opened at 9.5 and has stayed there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Orioles vs Red Sox predictions
- Prediction: Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-130)
- Prediction: Red Sox TT Over 5.5 (+110)
- Best bet: Same-Game Parlay - Story to record a hit and Red Sox ML (+100)
Picks made on 5/27/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Orioles vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park
• Date: Friday, May 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Orioles vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 3.58 ERA): Whitlock's pitch quality has directly translated to the ERA he's deserved. The right-hander exit velocity has left quite a bit to be desired, but the numbers are relatively sturdy beyond that. Whitlock relies heavily on breaking balls, with them making up over 80% of his arsenal. Whitlock gave up five earned runs in just three innings in his last start. Before that outing, he had just given up seven earned runs total in his previous 13 innings.
Kyle Bradish (1-3, 5.74 ERA): Situationally, Bradish has been a favorite of mine to pick on in this young season. The rookie has had a bumpy start to his career, though he's probably finally due for some positive regression. He relies heavily on a high strikeout rate to get outs and when he isn't getting K's, he's giving up hard contact. Bradish also has one of the highest average exit velocity rates in baseball, which has hurt him in a division full of power hitters. He faced this same Red Sox team in his first career start in April, giving up two earned runs in five innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Orioles: Chris Sale SP (Out).
Red Sox: John Means SP (Out), Travis Larkins Sr. RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Boston's last four home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox
Orioles vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
A natural contrarian part of me wants to back the Orioles, but I can't step in front of Boston right now. Especially with Bradish on that mound, I'll be backing the Red Sox on all fronts today.
Boston looks like a freight train, and it has needed to be because it has some ground to make up. The Sox have averaged 11 runs over their last three games and their prized offseason signing in Trevor Story has come to life. Whether it be through the longball or a simple hit, Story has been ablaze.
Consider this: A week ago, Story had driven in 16 runs over 32 games, and since then, he's driven in 21 in his last eight. In addition, he's hit nine home runs this month, including an eye-opening seven of those happening over the previous week.
The Sox have to be licking their chops seeing Bradish for a second time this season. He managed to slow them down in his first start of the year, which means likely doom for him this time around. There are only 12 pitchers in baseball giving up a higher average exit velocity than Bradish is right now.
Bradish has faced one team ranking higher in exit velocity this year than the Red Sox, and that was the Yankees. He was shelled for four runs in four innings and eight hits. I see no reason to expect a similar performance today.
This will be a rare instance where I'm not exactly going to follow my projections. It says Boston has a 55% chance of leading after five innings. I'm not sure it's accounting for how hot the bats of Boston are right now, so I'll grab this and seek an early cash in.
Prediction: Red Sox first five innings -0.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
There will be brisk winds blowing out to the Green Monster at Fenway tonight, which is just another reason to expect plenty of runs. I talked in-depth about how both of these starting pitchers taking the mound tend to get hit pretty hard. That will be a big deal today, where fly balls will carry more than ever.
This number has steadily risen throughout the day, and contributing factors like that are probably why. But has it gotten too high? The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. While tons of trends suggest this will be just another high-scoring Red Sox game, there are also many on the Orioles side that says it will stay Under.
For instance, the Under is 8-0 in Orioles' last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. While I don't believe the Red Sox are your typical generic "team with a losing record," trends are still trends and shouldn't be ignored.
Because of this, I'm going to ignore the complete game's total focus on isolating a team instead. I've picked on Bradish in this article, but I think this is a dream spot for the Red Sox. They are swinging a great bat right now.
The line on FanDuel for Boston to score over five runs was set at +110, which suggests a probability of 46%. I see it as a little more of a 50/50 proposition which gives us a slight edge.
Prediction: Red Sox team total Over 5.5 (+110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Sometimes you have to ride the wave. Trevor Story has blitzed the month of May, and there are no signs of it stopping anytime soon.
Though he did register one no-hit game in the White Sox series, that's one of the few blemishes he's had in May. Story is 0-3 lifetime against Bradish, which doesn't cause me any concern but instead makes me think he's due.
This season, some of his best games have come against pitchers who had exit velocity issues. Bradish is the one who struggles the most with that out of those he's seen. I'll once again back the Red Sox here along with Story.
Pick: Same-Game Parlay - Trevor Story to record a hit and Red Sox moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
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