Padres vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: d'Arnaud Keeps Producing for Atlanta

The Atlanta Braves will have their ace on the mound in Spencer Strider for their home opener today vs. Blake Snell and the San Diego Padres who enter as +145 road dogs.

Despite the potential for plenty of strikeouts in the starting pitching matchup, there’s certainly some value in the middle of the Atlanta order in a clean-up hitter who crushes lefties and should have some runners on base when he does.  

Find out where my Padres vs. Braves best bet lies in my MLB betting picks below.

Padres vs Braves odds

Padres vs Braves predictions

Travis d’Arnaud will hit out of the clean-up spot again today and there's a reason why the catcher has been getting all the work over Sean Murphy and that’s because of his hot stick — even vs. a left-hander in Blake Snell.

d’Arnaud is hitting .385 to start the season and will have a great chance at knocking in a run today with Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley hitting in front of him. The table-setters are hitting over .300 combined this season.

4/6 #Braves vs. SDP (7:20 pm ET)

Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Matt Olson 1B
Austin Riley 3B
Travis d'Arnaud DH
Ozzie Albies 2B
Sean Murphy C
Michael Harris II CF
Kevin Pillar LF
Orlando Arcia SS

Spencer Strider SP pic.twitter.com/gfE4pMIR5n

— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) April 6, 2023

The probability for an RBI from a clean-up hitter is at least 40% as THE BAT X seldomly projects less than 0.40 RBI from any clean-up hitter.

That chance is even higher in a game that has seen the total go from 7.5 to 8.5. PointsBet has a +210 price on the Over 0.5 RBI for d'Arnaud which is a 32% implied probability. THE BAT X is projecting 0.56 for the catcher who is 7-for-10 vs. lefties this season and also posted a .946 OPS vs. southpaws in 2022. He's never faced Snell. 

I really think there are some edges in betting on this RBI market — especially with clean-up hitters. Today is a great spot for some plus money that I’m putting a full unit on. I’d play this to +150.   

My best bet: Travis d’Arnaud Over 0.5 RBI (+210)

Padres vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Atlanta Braves have gone through the rotation and have taken five of six games to start the season ahead of their series opener with the San Diego Padres at Truist Park. Now they get to throw out Spencer Strider in their home opener vs. a Padres team that has posted average offensive numbers and has faced some sub-par starting pitching.

The Padres sit as +145 road dogs after opening at +130. It’s the first game they haven’t been favored this season while starter Blake Snell was a -210 home favorite in his first start — a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. 

This San Diego offense has not seen an arm like Spencer Strider yet this year and their Top-10 slugging numbers are built on the backs of some weak pitching vs. Colorado and Arizona. 

They did hit Zach Gallen but still lost that game in part because of a bullpen that has a fourth-worst ERA at 5.95 to begin the year.

Outside of Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogarts, there isn’t a lot to be scared of for Strider in this Padres lineup. The Atlanta starter currently has the fourth-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young.   

Strider was a -240 road favorite in his first start vs. Washington. THE BAT has Strider projected for over 7.0 strikeouts across 16.4 outs while allowing 2.13 earned runs, while Snell projects for 0.59 more runs allowed over fewer outs.

Truist Park will have low-80s temperatures, making it one of the best hitting parks today on a small slate which should also favor an Atlanta offense that sits sixth in slugging, seventh in OPS, and is hitting a robust .280.

With guys like Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris in the bottom half of this lineup, the offensive edge is certainly with the home side who is getting on base at a .378 clip vs. lefties this season.

With Strider keeping things low scoring on the visiting side early, I’m happy to take the Braves on the first five run line at -0.5 -110 at bet365.

Padres vs Braves Over/Under analysis

The Braves are seeing an average of 7.81 total runs per game this season but have also played the Nationals and Cardinals while the Padres are averaging 8.84 total runs per game.

Early bettors smashed this opening total of 7.5 and sent it to as high as 8.5 with some 8s still available at the time of writing. 

Hitting conditions aren’t terrible at Truist Park with low-80s temperatures and slight wind blowing out, but with the potential of a high-strikeout game and fewer balls in play from the starting pitchers, it might be time to hit the buy-back button on the Under after the market moved it a full run above the opening number.

Snell and Strider are projected to strike out over 14 combined batters and that certainly cuts into the productive outs that balls in play can have. It also helps the two pitchers get out of potential high-scoring situations.

It’s more of a lean as the middle of both orders are undoubtedly threatening, but Under 8.5 at -115 or better is decent.

Padres vs Braves game info

Padres vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell (0-1, 6.23 ERA): Snell went 4 1/3 innings in his first start of the year and struck out nine batters but also allowed three runs on six hits and a walk over 93 pitches. He’ll have a much tougher task going from the Rockies’ lineup to the Braves’. 

Spencer Strider (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Strider will be making his second start of the season after striking out nine Washington batters in the opener over six scoreless frames. He’s made some changes to his change-up and generated five strikes (three swings and misses) on six total pitches. Strider saw the Padres once last year and threw 4 2/3 innings and struck out five while allowing two runs.  

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