Padres vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Expect Offense Early in ATL

The San Diego Padres will look to end a two-game skid when they take on the Atlanta Braves in the second leg of a four-game series on Friday.

The Braves (6-1) have the best record in the National League and won their home opener 7-6 over San Diego on Thursday. The Padres (3-4) are two games back of the Dodgers in the NL West in the early going.

Both teams will be starting pitchers who struggled in their first outings this season. We’ll talk about how that impacts bettors in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Braves on April 7.

Padres vs Braves odds

Padres vs Braves predictions

The Atlanta Braves got the best of a fairly wild game on Thursday, scoring the final three runs over their last two innings to escape with a series-opening win. These two teams beat up on the opposing pitchers, despite the fact that starters Blake Snell and Spencer Strider are both capable of pitching effectively against anyone in the league.

That raises the question of what these lineups might do against pitchers who are struggling to get the job done so far this year. We’ll find out on Thursday, as there are significant questions about both of the pitchers scheduled to get the ball to start this game.

The Braves are giving the ball to Jared Shuster, who made his major league debut on Sunday. In that game, Shuster gave up four runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings, while striking out just one batter. 

Atlanta opened Shuster down to Triple-A after that game. However, the Braves recalled him to make the start tonight after Collin McHugh went to the injured list. The 24-year-old Shuster remains one of Atlanta’s top prospects and perhaps the best young arm in the system, but whether he’s ready to face major league competition is an open question.

The San Diego Padres will counter with Nick Martinez. He had a tough first outing for the Padres as well, giving up four runs and six hits over seven innings of work against the Rockies on Friday. Martinez enjoyed a solid season last year for the Padres while working primarily out of the bullpen, but his value as a starter is still largely unknown.

Martinez will now have to deal with a potent Braves offense that is hitting .290 on the year and averaging 5.57 runs per game. Matt Olson (.333, three home runs) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.355, two home runs) are off to scorching starts, and the team has a total OPS of .841 in its first seven games. 

Shuster won’t have a cakewalk against the Padres, either. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto are a frightening group for any pitcher to face, let alone a rookie making their second career start. While San Diego isn’t hitting the way it wants to yet, the bats in the middle of the lineup can put up runs in a hurry.

This game is set up for a lot of runs, especially early. While it’s hard to be sure what will happen once both sides go to their bullpens, I expect plenty of runs to be scored off the starters. Let’s target the Over in this game, but do so in the early going, hitting the first-five market rather than the full-game total.

My best bet: First-five Over 5.5 (+110 at BetMGM)

Padres vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Braves opened tonight’s game as a -116 favorite. That number has drifted in Atlanta’s direction, with the consensus line settling at around Braves -125. You can also find lines as good as +108 if you want to back San Diego.

Atlanta has started the season hot, having lost only one game so far on the year. However, that loss came in Shuster’s first start, when they fell 4-1 to the Nationals. 

The Padres are a less-impressive 3-4 to start the year, though we shouldn’t put too much stock in these small sample sizes. San Diego’s bats have been heating up as of late, scoring 5+ runs in each of its past three games. It’s been pitching that has largely let the Padres down, as they're allowing five runs per game and 15 over the last two contests.

Realistically, these are two teams that expect to be among the top postseason contenders in the NL this season. While the Padres don’t yet have Fernando Tatis Jr., they have plenty of firepower in their lineup and a relatively deep rotation that should allow them to battle the Dodgers for the NL West title.

I don’t have much confidence in Shuster in this game, given that we haven’t yet seen him pitch well at the major league level. I’m leaning towards the Padres here with a plus-money number on the moneyline.

Padres vs Braves Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 9.5 runs. That number has remained consistent throughout the day on Friday, though a few books are slightly shading the line towards the Under.

This is a big number, but it’s not without justification. When you have two strong lineups against two questionable pitchers, there’s an excellent chance we’ll see a slugfest in Atlanta. 

Backing the Over and needing at least 10 runs is still asking for a lot. These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday, but Atlanta has only played to a total of 10 or higher twice this season, while San Diego has done so three times in seven games.

Still, the pitching matchup would normally have me leaning toward the Over, despite the number. However, there’s also the risk of bad weather tonight in Atlanta, which always makes me a bit wary that the game could be shortened.

If you’re interested in betting this game, I’d keep an eye on the weather report. If the skies clear up a bit, I’d recommend the Over; if there are questions about the weather, it’s best to just stay off this market entirely.

Padres vs Braves game info

Padres vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nick Martinez (0-1, 5.14 ERA): Martinez gave the Padres plenty of length in his first start, but still gave up four runs over seven innings. The swingman had a solid year for the Padres last year, finishing with a 3.47 ERA, though his 4.43 FIP looked less impressive. Martinez came up in the Rangers organization but fell out of MLB after 2017, and only returned to the Padres after spending four years pitching in Japan.

Jared Shuster (0-1, 7.71 ERA): Shuster had a rough welcome to the Big Leagues on Sunday, giving up four runs in the first inning against the Nationals. The rookie settled down after that and didn’t allow another run while going 4 2/3 innings in total, but he still got the loss. Shuster throws an underwhelming fastball in the low-90s but compliments that with a strong slider and changeup that should make the lefty effective once he settles into an MLB role.

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