After a thrilling walk-off win on Thursday, the Atlanta Braves fell victim to the San Diego Padres on Friday night in a 5-4 defeat. The runs have been popping up on the scoreboard like crazy in this series, and that should continue with two over-the-hill starters getting the ball today.
Join me as I break down my best free MLB pick for Padres vs. Braves on Saturday, April 8.
Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves predictions
I went for the Over between these two teams on Friday night, and despite a heartbreaking loss by the hook I’m going to go right back to the well. The thing is, I love both of these offenses and once again hate both of the starting pitchers.
Let’s start with Michael Wacha, who will go for the Padres. He started his season off against the Colorado Rockies and allowed four runs on six hits and three walks over six frames at home. He couldn’t even use the excuse that he pitched at a hitter’s park for this one.
While it was just one start, I’m sour on Wacha entering the season. His 4.56 xERA a year ago was certainly cause for concern, as was his strikeout rate, which diminished for a third straight season. While he wasn’t walking anyone and thus helping out his stat line, his walks coming back to bite him in his first start certainly has me worried.
Then, there’s Charlie Morton. He certainly had a tougher task against the St. Louis Cardinals in his first start, but scattering nine hits over 5 1/3 innings with just one strikeout was certainly head-turning. This is a guy who has struck out more than 28% of the hitters he’s faced in back-to-back seasons. It was the only thing that saved him from a nightmare 2023, where he allowed a high 9.5% barrel rate – the worst of his career.
I will wax poetic about both offenses when we return to total talk, but just rest assured that neither of these arms are worth trusting here. Let’s go ahead and bet the Over.
My best bet: Over 9 (-105 at bet365)
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Padres vs Braves moneyline analysis
Morton may be done for at this point in his career, but the fact his strikeout rates have remained sky-high over the last couple of seasons has me a bit encouraged.
On the other hand, I think Wacha may be cooked – and he will have to face the much tougher of the two offenses here. San Diego is middle of the pack thus far in terms of production at the plate and have made a ton of soft contact, ranking just 20th in hard-hit rate.
The Brave are the clear side here, even if they’re on the road. Outside of Xander Bogaerts, this Padres offense has really struggled out of the gate. Against a solid pitching staff, San Diego should lose once again.
Padres vs Braves Over/Under analysis
The Braves are, without a doubt, ripping the ball right now at the plate. They’re ninth in wRC+ entering Saturday’s game and have coupled that with a very low 20.8% strikeout rate and a high 11.0% walk rate. This is a nightmare matchup for Wacha, and it gets worse when you factor in the Braves’ Top 10 standing in hard-hit rate and second-place standing in barrels per plate appearance.
If Wacha struggled with walks against the Rockies, he will really struggle here against Atlanta. On top of that, he’s been unable to avoid giving up quality contact and will run into a bit of a buzzsaw here in the form of one of the league’s best offenses.
Despite some fleeting results and not nearly enough quality contact, I would like to point out the fact that the Padres currently stand 10th in hard-hit balls per swing. It’s a good way to highlight that they’re still having disciplined at-bats right now, something that will negatively impact Morton.
Padres vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, April 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports San Diego |
Padres vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Michael Wacha (1-0, 6.00 ERA): Fresh off signing a long-term extension over the offseason, the 31-year-old folded against the Rockies in his first start of the season. He impressed with a 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings last season, but underlying numbers like a low 20.2% strikeout rate and a high 9.6% barrel rate tell a different story.
Charlie Morton (1-0, 5.06 ERA): Uncle Charlie is now 39 years of age, but it seems he’s still the effective pitcher he’s been for the last five or six years. Morton started the 2022 season off on a sour note before finishing with a 4.34 ERA and even-better 4.11 xERA. His strikeout rate was also above 28% for a second straight season, bringing his career mark to an impressive 26.8%.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in the Padres’ last seven games against a right-hander. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves
