Padres vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Lineups Struggle to Generate Runs

The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers will meet for the fourth time this season at American Family Field on Thursday night as the Padres look to snap a rough patch of baseball as they'e riding a three-game skid and have won just two of their last eight.

The Brewers (-110) and Adrian Houser will put their No. 2 home record of 14-6 straight up on the line tonight against Sean Manaea and the Padres, who are comfortable with winning on the road with a 17-10 SU record.

Which team is going to end their losing streaks on Lou Gehrig day? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Brewers.

Padres vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers opened as -125 home favorites but this game quickly moved to a pick ‘em. The total has hit 8.5 after opening at 8. Houser and Milwaukee closed as -120 road favorites with a total of 7.5 a week ago vs. these same Padres.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Brewers predictions

• Prediction: Brewers ML (-110)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Under 8.5 (-120)

Picks made on 6/02/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Padres vs Brewers game info

• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Padres vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Sean Manaea LHP (2-3, 4.02 ERA): The San Diego lefty has had no issues getting deep into games of late and has recorded at least 18 outs in five straight starts but has also allowed at least three runs in each of those outings. He doesn’t give up many hits but has issued 19 walks over 50 innings and has allowed at least one home run in four straight starts.

The Padres are 4-5 SU when Manaea starts and are 5-3-1 to the Over. Manaea does have a good matchup versus the Brewers, who struggle to hit left-handed pitching. 

Adrian Houser RHP (3-5, 3.69 ERA): Houser got obliterated by the Cardinals in his last outing where he allowed nine hits and eight runs (five earned) in just four innings. He did go into that start with a 2.98 ERA so a rebound is likely. He saw the Padres just two starts ago and went six innings, allowing just three hits and a run. Houser is a sinker pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats but he also sits in the Top 10% in barrel rate. Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in his starts this season and he’s 4-4-1 O/U across his nine starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Matt Beaty 1B (Out), Wil Myers OF (Questionable).
Brewers: Andrew McCutchen OF (Questionable), Hunter Renfroe OF (Out), Willy Adames SS (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0-2 in the Padres’ last eight overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers

Padres vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Brewers come into tonight's meeting having dropped two straight. The visiting Padres, however, are losers of three straight and six of their last 10. They were swept by the Cardinals this week and managed just seven runs of offense in three games. They are missing some key pieces, including Fernando Tatis Jr., while Manny Machado is hitting just .160  and with no extra bases over his last seven games. 

The Padres have one of the best road records in baseball at 17-10 but they also dropped two of three to the Brewers at home just a week ago and now face right-hander Adrain Houser, who held this offense in check in that series.

Houser is coming off a terrible start but had a sub-3.00 ERA heading into his last game before unraveling for five earned runs. Houser needed 99 pitches to go six innings vs. the Padres while allowing one run on three hits back on May 23. Milwaukee lost that game 3-2 in extra innings but Houser kept this lineup in order and has a good chance to do it again today. Over the last week, the Padres have had the fourth-worst slugging percentage in baseball. 

We understand the moneyline movement to the visitors as Milwaukee is not a great team at hitting left-handed pitching, and Manaea can go deep to keep this game tight. One-run games are nothing new to the Brewers, who are 12-6 SU in one-run games this season, which is the best mark in the National League. Having one of the best bullpens is a huge advantage for the Brewers and with their best arms all available — and Josh Hader not having pitched in three days — it will be at full strength tonight.

With the San Diego bats ice cold and the Padres going 6-9 SU versus teams with winning records on the season, we’re happy to get one of the best home teams in baseball at -110. It won’t be a blowout vs. the lefty Manaea, but the Brewers and their rested bullpen are enough to take the home side Thursday night.

Prediction: Brewers ML (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Combined, both clubs have been profitable to the Under at 42-51-7 O/U on the season. At 20-28-2 O/U, the Padres have the league’s third-best Under record made possible by an offense that hits the fourth-fewest home runs plus a team ERA of 3.44, which ranks sixth in baseball — one spot behind the Brewers. 

If today’s starters can get quality outings, both teams will be handing the ball off to elite, well-rested bullpens. Milwaukee’s relievers rank second in baseball in WAR while San Diego's sit 11th. Hader hasn’t pitched in two days and he could get some work even if the Brewers are trailing in a non-conventional role. He is currently the 10th betting favorite in NL Cy Young odds as he hasn’t allowed a run since last July. 

Although the Brewers lead the league in home runs, they have the No. 27 wRC+ against southpaws and are hitting a league-worst .209 vs. lefty hurlers. Manaea’s M.O. is going deep into his starts, which means the Brewers could see plenty of pitches from the left side today. 

There are also giant holes in this Milwaukee order as Craig Counsell is still giving meaningful at-bats to Lorenzo Cain, who owns a slugging percentage lower than his OBP. Andrew McCutchen may also be out of tonight's lineup and Rowdy Tellez, the lineup's biggest bopper, hits righties much better than lefties.

Houser can hopefully replicate his last outing against the Padres and with Machado finally cooling down, this is not an intimidating lineup. 

The Under hit all three meetings this season and with both bullpens ready to roll, a lefty on the mound for San Diego, and a pair of great defenses, we’re happy to get this Under at 8.5, which is a full run more than Houser’s last start in San Diego last week.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-120 at bet365)

Best bet

On the season, the Brewers are scoring a run against left-handed pitchers every 10.86 plate appearances and if they can’t leave the yard, this Milwaukee offense struggles mightily to string hits together vs. lefties. So the home side could see Manaea for six or seven innings and then face a San Diego bullpen that is anchored by Taylor Rogers — another southpaw — and his 1.69 ERA.

The San Diego offense hasn’t scored more than four runs in nine straight games and is one of the best Under teams in baseball. Machado has not been hitting for extra bases of late and if he isn’t going, there isn't much of a threat in this lineup to pick up his slack with Tatis still sidelined. 

The total closed at 7.5 the last time Houser faced the Padres and that was with Nick Martinez toeing the rubber for San Diego. We like tonight’s pitching matchup even better for the Under and we’re getting a full run more at 8.5 after this total opened at 8. 

Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 at bet365)

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