Going for their 10th win in a row, the San Diego Padres will head on the road to begin a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.
The Padres just completed a dominant homestand that saw them win all nine games and outscore their opponents 66-17. They've won 12 of their last 13 overall but will face a tough test with Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff getting the ball for the series opener.
Can San Diego extend its winning streak to 10? Find out with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Brewers on May 24, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Padres vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Monday, May 24, 2021
• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• TV: BS-WI, BS-SD
Padres vs Brewers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee hit TwinSpires' odds board as a slim -115 favorite late Sunday night, the moneyline dipped to -110 pick 'em overnight, then this morning moved to Brewers -120, where it's stuck all day. As of 4:45 p.m. ET, the Padres are drawing 79 percent of moneyline tickets and 62 percent of moneyline cash. The total opened at 7 (Over -115) and saw a couple of price adjusments, down to -110 flat and up to Over -120 before returning to Over -115, with 52 percent of tickets/76 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (1-0, 3.79 ERA): Snell, one of the Padres' prized offseason acquisitions, has had a bumpy ride in his first season in San Diego but is coming off his best start. The lefty worked six innings for the first time and punched out a season-high 11 batters. Even better for a pitcher who has had control problems this year, Snell walked just one batter, marking the first time he hasn't issued at least two free passes in an outing.
Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 1.58 ERA): The hard-throwing righty has been sensational, allowing two runs or fewer in eight straight starts since his first outing of the year. He's worked into the eighth inning in two consecutive starts and his 1.58 ERA is second in the majors.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Manny Machado 3B (Questionable), Trent Grisham OF (Questionable), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out).
Brewers: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Padres and Brewers. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.
Moneyline pick
The Padres cruised along without some key players after they got hit with COVID and are looking every bit like the contender they were expected to be coming into the season.
San Diego has reeled off nine wins in a row, using a combination of lockdown pitching and a powerful offense that once again has Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers back in it to become MLB's first 30-win team. The Padres lead the NL West and have baseball's best run differential at +75 going into Monday's series opener against the Brewers.
Although we can't take too much from one start, especially against a weak team like the Colorado Rockies, San Diego will look to make it 10 in a row with Snell on the mound. He's coming off by far his best start of the year and is simply too talented to not turn the corner for good. He gets another favorable matchup against a Brewers team that has an offense that's been roughly 20 percent below league average, ranking 29th out of the 30 MLB teams in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus.
San Diego is 12th in wRC+ and has a much-superior offense that is scoring nearly one more run per game than Milwaukee. But Woodruff can make any offense turn cold, as he doesn't issue many walks, doesn't get hurt by the long ball, and has punched out nearly a third of the batters he has faced, leading to a 2.45 FIP that trails only the Cy Young favorites in Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. Woodruff simply doesn't give teams many opportunities to inflict damage against him.
That said, being able to get a first-place team on a hot run as an underdog is not something you see very often and it's not something we're about to pass up — even with the dominant Woodruff toeing the rubber.
PREDICTION: San Diego (-102)
Over/Under pick
The Padres have the best team ERA in the majors, while the Brewers rank a respectable 11th and will have the No. 1 run suppressor in MLB on the mound.
Snell is no slouch himself despite a rocky start in his new digs. He's been punching out hitters at the best rate of his career on a per nine-inning basis (13.4), using a dynamite slider and mid-90s fastball to rack up whiffs. The problem, more than anything else, has been control issues, as Snell is walking more batters than ever before, leading to a ghastly 1.46 WHIP.
Despite all that, he's only had one start where he's allowed more than three runs. And when he's done, he'll be turning the ball over to a bullpen that ranks first in the majors in ERA and Top 3 in strikeout percentage and WHIP.
It's a great matchup for San Diego's pitchers as the Brewers have been a terrible hitting team at home, with the second-worst OPS (.643) in the majors to go along with weak power numbers and a .213 batting average that's better than only two teams.
Woodruff's ERA says all you need to know about how difficult it is to generate offense off him. And if you believe in run support numbers, there's this: Woodruff's 1.58 runs of support per nine innings is the lowest mark among qualified pitchers.
Snell is significantly better than his numbers indicate, Woodruff has been elite, and this starting pitching matchup alone is enough for us to side with the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (-107)
Padres vs Brewers betting card
- San Diego (-102)
- Under 7 (-107)
Picks made on 5/23/2021 at 9:16 p.m. ET
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