MLB bettors are getting ready for an NL West matchup this Saturday evening with the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the third-place San Diego Padres.
This contest is the second of a three-game set, with Los Angeles claiming the first game 4-2.
Will the Dodgers defend their home diamond once again, or can the Padres end their three-game skid? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Dodgers on Saturday, May 13.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers predictions
Slated to take the mound for the San Diego Padres is right-hander Joe Musgrove, who, due to a couple of injuries, didn’t make his season debut until the end of April.
It was certainly not the sharpest start to the campaign for Musgrove, who allowed 10 runs over 8.1 innings through his first two starts. However, he finally found his rhythm last time out, allowing zero earned runs on just two hits through five innings pitched.
His opponent in that contest? The Los Angeles Dodgers.
We’re going to back Musgrove to come out and deliver another strong outing, as he is a much better pitcher than his poor start to the season suggests. Specifically, we’re going to back the right-hander to go Over his strikeout prop in this matchup.
Boasting a ridiculous six-pitch arsenal, Musgrove’s unpredictability is the reason he ranks in the 52nd percentile or higher in K%, whiff%, and chase rate this season — and those metrics are surely going to keep climbing as he returns to form. In fact, Musgrove has finished with a K% north of 23% in each of his past four seasons.
He should be able to get the punchout working against the Dodgers. While Los Angeles obviously boasts one of the most stacked lineups in baseball, it is susceptible to punchouts.
This season, the Dodgers rank just 22nd in the league in K%. This should not be surprising given that the middle of their lineup consists of strikeout-prone hitters like J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and James Outman.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Musgrove. Through 209 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Los Angeles roster possesses a 23 K% and 24.6 Whiff%.
My best bet: Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
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Padres vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
I would lean toward the Padres’ moneyline in this contest, but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. San Diego is a much stronger team than its 19-20 record suggests and catching it around the +130 mark is not a bad value play.
However, it will take more than that to fade the Dodgers on their home diamond. After a sluggish start to the campaign, Los Angeles is 8-2 over its past 10 games.
This season, the Dodgers rank in the Top 5 in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs. While San Diego ranks nowhere near those marks, this lineup is far more talented than the results it puts up, and positive regression will hit sooner rather than later.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. For Los Angeles, left-hander Julio Urias is slated to take the mound.
Through eight starts this season, Urias is 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also incredibly strong, ranking in the 61st percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, hardhit%, and fastball spin.
Meanwhile, Musgrove also ranks in the 69th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and fastball spin. While both pitchers are excellent, both lineups are even better, so I am staying away from the total.
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, May 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (1-0, 6.75 ERA): After missing the first half of April with multiple injuries, it took a couple of starts for Musgrove to find his form. However, that is exactly what he did in his last start against the Dodgers, allowing zero earned runs on just two hits through five innings pitched. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, Musgrove’s unpredictability is perhaps his greatest asset.
Julio Urias (4-3, 3.77 ERA): Putting together a relatively strong start to the campaign, we should expect some better outings from Urias moving forward. His underlying metrics are strong, and his track record is typically excellent. In his latest start against the Padres, Urias surrendered two runs on eight hits through five and two-thirds innings pitched.
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Musgrove has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his past five starts against the Dodgers. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
