The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants wrap up a three-game series at Oracle Park on Wednesday afternoon.
The Padres won the first two games in this series and look to close the season strong and secure a Wild Card berth. Oddsmakers expect them to sweep the Giants today with MLB betting lines hitting the board with the Friars as -145 road faves.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Giants on August 31.
Padres vs Giants best odds
Padres vs Giants picks and predictions
My best bet: Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
With Fernando Tatis Jr. on the sidelines and Juan Soto struggling to hit his stride with his new club, Manny Machado continues to carry San Diego's offense. The six-time All-Star is slashing .304/.373/.534 while ranking 11th in the majors with 248 total bases in 120 games.
He's been even better lately, slashing .375/.425/.688 with five homers and 10 doubles in 19 games over the last three weeks. Machado also boasts a career slugging percentage of .491 against southpaws like Alex Wood and has done a decent job of hitting at Oracle Park.
He also has a .537 slugging percentage on sinkers and a .566 SLG against sliders this season which are Wood's bread and butter. Take the Over 1.5 on Machado's total bases.
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Padres vs Giants betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Padres took a punch to the gut when they found out that superstar slugger Fernado Tatis Jr. would not be rejoining the club this year after being suspended for PEDs. That said, they still have a 2.5-game lead on the Brewers for the final postseason spot and have gone 5-1 in their last six games on the road.
This is still a playoff-calibre squad and while they struggled at the plate for much of the year, they have improved in that area and rank sixth in the majors with an OPS of .745 during the month of August.
Joe Musgrove will take to the hill for San Diego today. He has been up-and-down over the last couple of months but has a couple of things going for him; strong analytical stats and dominance against the Giants this season. The right-hander limits hard contact, rarely walks batters, and has excellent spin and chase rates on his four-seamer and curve. He has also allowed just one run and 11 hits in 21 innings against San Francisco this year.
The Giants will respond with left-hander Alex Wood who has struggled mightily over the last month (8.53 ERA in five starts) after putting together a nice July. It's worth mentioning that Wood has been excellent in his last two starts against the Friars, allowing just six hits through 13 1-3 innings of shutout ball. However, he did surrender 13 hits and seven earned runs across 7 1-3 innings in his first two starts against them this year.
Wood might not get much run support from a Giants lineup that is plating just 3.58 runs per game with an OPS of .671 this month.
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under is set at a relatively low 7.5. Although Musgrove has been lights out against the Giants this season and Wood has looked very sharp against the Padres in his last two starts, their overall production has really dipped lately.
I mentioned Wood's atrocious 8.53 ERA over his last five starts but the most troubling thing about his performance this season has been that his two most common pitches have been getting mashed.
The lefty is extremely reliant on a sinker that he throws 45.3% of the time and that opponents are slugging .472 against. His slider that he throws 36.3% of the time was his out pitch last year but has been below average this season.
Meanwhile, Musgrove had a sizzling 1.59 ERA with an OBA of .196 until the middle of June but in 11 starts since then he has pitched to a 4.66 ERA with an OBA of .262.
Padres vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Wednesday, August 31, 2022
• First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports California, NBCS Bay Area
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (8-6, 2.96 ERA): Musgrove has been one of San Diego's most reliable starters this season, pitching to a career-best 1.05 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .227 through 23 starts. However, his play has dropped off over the last couple of months and he struggled in his previous outing, surrendering eight hits and five runs (two earned) before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning against the Royals.
Alex Wood (8-11, 5.00 ERA): The southpaw was solid in 2021 but like most of the Giants players, has regressed this season with his ERA rising from 3.83 to 5.00, his WHIP ticking up from 1.18 to 1.24, and his OBA surging from .236 to .261. The 31-year-old has been shredded in his last two starts surrendering five dingers and 15 runs in 7 2-3 innings against the Twins and Rockies.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 6-20 in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
