The San Diego Padres will continue their three-game series with the New York Mets on Saturday evening.
The Friars drew first blood on Friday night with a 4-1 victory as Yu Darvish outdueled Max Scherzer. Can they keep the momentum going?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Mets on Saturday, July 23.
Padres vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as consensus favorites of -148, and the line has hardly moved at most sportsbooks. New York can be had at anywhere from -145 to -158, so shopping around is crucial. The total was unveiled at 7.5 and has remained firm at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Saturday, July 23, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports
Padres vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (1-5, 5.22 ERA): Blake Snell continues to take his lumps in what’s been a brutal 2022 for the former AL Cy Young winner. He issued six walks and surrendered five earned runs before being removed after 3 2-3 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field on July 14. The Mets tagged him for four runs over four frames when he faced them at home on June 6.
Chris Bassitt (7-6, 3.79 ERA): Chris Bassitt will try for his sixth straight quality start at Citi Field on Saturday night. He owns a 0.89 WHIP over his last five efforts, along with a 30-5 strikeout/walk ratio. However, his start before the streak began was a dreadful one (seven earned runs over 3 1-3 innings), and it came against the Padres on June 8.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams at Citi Field. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
Padres vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Mets should make for another miserable outing for Blake Snell on Saturday night.
Snell has suffered from control issues this season, especially on the road, where he’s issued 20 walks over 23 innings of work. Not surprisingly, his ERA jumps from 4.67 at home to 5.87 everywhere else.
Snell walked in one of the four runs he allowed over four innings against New York on June 6. He also gave up two hits to Eduardo Escobar, who wound up hitting for the cycle in that affair.
Bettors should expect Mark Canha and Starling Marte to deal some damage to Snell, as the pair has combined to hit 9-for-22 (.409) against him with a homer and three RBI. Marte has been red-hot for the Mets in July, batting .392.
Meanwhile, over his last five starts, Chris Bassitt has been everything the Mets had hoped for when they traded for him, as he’s authored a 2.41 ERA. He was rocked by the Padres on June 8 (seven earned runs over 3 1-3 innings), and his overall road form in 2022 (4.67 ERA) has left something to be desired. However, Bassitt’s 3.12 ERA at home over 57 2-3 innings is more than respectable.
Bassitt should ensure that Mets manager Buck Showalter doesn’t have to make too many pitching changes prior to calling for closer Edwin Diaz (20 saves) in the ninth inning. The Mets are offering good value at these odds.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Both offenses in this matchup are slumping, and both bullpens are still well-rested after the All-Star break. So, the Under is quite appealing in this spot.
San Diego skipper Bob Melvin should still have Nick Martinez (1.93 ERA in relief) and Taylor Rogers (27 saves) at his disposal after they locked down a 4-1 victory on Friday night. Luis Garcia — the team leader at 15 holds — is also fresh.
The Mets are 23rd in team batting average (.228) this month. Jeff McNeil has gone ice-cold at the plate, batting .176 in July. Pete Alonso hasn’t been much better, at .208, with only two home runs.
It’s no wonder the Amazins went after the Pirates’ Daniel Vogelbach, who is expected to be active for this contest. However, his lefty bat will probably be used in a pinch-hitting role here, if at all.
New York traded a promising rookie reliever in Colin Holderman to get Vogelbach, but it still has some serviceable arms to bridge the gap from Bassitt to Diaz in this one, beginning with Adam Ottavino. He’s lowered his ERA from 6.52 to 2.52 since May 8.
Some of the Padres’ best bats have been practically punchless at the plate this month, including Manny Machado (.193 average), and Luke Voit (.173 average).
Prediction: Under 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Mets’ edge in the starting pitching battle makes them a compelling bet at a fair price on Saturday night.
Snell has already been torched once by the Mets at Petco Park, and switching venues to Citi Field doesn’t promise to help him. Bassitt has a hot hand and can reverse his bad outing in San Diego here.
The trends favor the Mets too, as the Amazins have won 26 of their last 30 games when their opponent allows two runs or fewer in their previous game, and eight of their last 10 home games against left-handed starters.
The Friars are 4-10 in their last 14 road games, and 3-9 in their last 12 games against right-handed starters.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)
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