Sunday Night Baseball features a matchup between two of the NL’s best teams.
The New York Mets (58-37) hold the second-best record in the National League and are a half-game up on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings. They’ll send Carlos Carrasco to the mound.
The San Diego Padres (54-42) look to continue their push toward a wild card spot as they sit 10.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Joe Musgrove gets the nod for the Friars on Sunday night.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets.
Padres vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as -115 favorites but have taken some steam. Depending on the book, they now range from between -120 and -130 favorites. The total opened at 7.5 but has moved to 8 at some books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 7/24/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Sunday, July 24, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Padres vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42 ERA): Musgrove made the NL All-Star team as a deserved nominee. His first season in San Diego was a success as he finished with a 3.18 ERA in 2021. He’s been even better in 2022 as he currently has a 2.42 ERA. His 3.18 xERA and 3.09 FIP are both strong peripherals.
Carlos Carasco (10-4, 4.27 ERA): Carrasco had a disastrous 6.04 ERA last year in his first year with the Mets, but he’s turned things around in 2022. His 4.27 ERA isn’t terrific, but his 3.97 xERA and 3.51 FIP are both decent peripherals. He strikes out plenty of batters (23.8% strikeout rate), which is par for the course for his style of pitching. He’s not the dominant force that he once was, but he remains a quality starting pitcher.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Padres are 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
Padres vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Padres will have the starting pitching advantage, and that’s enough for them to earn my bet on Sunday Night Baseball.
Musgrove has been a bright spot for the Friars all season long and has a stellar 2.42 ERA. He strikes out plenty of batters (24.8% strikeout rate) and does a good job of limiting walks (5.6% walk rate). He’s allowed only a 4.1% barrel rate, so he's doing a great job of keeping hitters from squaring up the ball.
Carrasco’s numbers were awful last season, and although they look better this year, they’re still a ways off from Musgrove.
The Mets have been a good offense for most of the season, but their performance over the last two months hasn’t been anything spectacular. Going back to the start of June, New York ranks 21st in wRC+, which is behind San Diego (15th) in that time frame.
The Mets are just 2-5 in their last seven games against right-handed starters and they're up against a good one Sunday night. They’ve also struggled recently against quality opposition, going 2-6 in their last eight games against teams with winning records.
I’ll take the Padres to nab the victory.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
Playing the Under in San Diego games has been a profitable strategy. The Padres have gone 52-42-2 to the Under this season.
Musgrove has great numbers (4.1% barrel rate, 2.42 ERA) and faces off with a Mets lineup that ranks just 18th in wRC+ in the month of July. I like his chances to limit the damage. The Under has cashed in seven of the Padres’ last 10 road games.
New York is also trending toward the Under, as they’ve been held under the total in each of their last six games against right-handed starters. In the last five meetings between these teams, the Under has cashed in four of them.
Both teams possess a quality bullpen, so I don’t have a concern about playing the full game Under. The Mets have a 3.46 ERA in relief while the Padres aren’t too far behind with a 3.82 bullpen ERA.
These teams are trending toward the Under and I have good reason to think that’s the side for this matchup, so that’s what I’m playing.
Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
I’m targeting the Under as the best for Sunday Night Baseball.
Joe Musgrove has been a great arm for San Diego this season with an excellent 2.42 ERA and faces a Mets lineup that is 6-0 to the Under in its last six games against a right-handed starter.
The Padres haven’t been a fearsome lineup lately, ranking just 22nd in wRC+ in the month of July. Give me the Under.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 at bet365)
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