Every series is big this time of year, and this one will be no exception when the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet up to start a three-game set.
Atlanta is trying to win the division and trail the leaders by just half a game, while Philadelphia fights to hold its position in the Wild Card race.
Who do we like for Game 1 of this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies.
Phillies vs Braves best odds
Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions
There is an overwhelming pitching edge here, and I have to take it.
Max Fried and Ranger Suárez have some very similar attributes. I went into that in detail in our pitcher summary, but in short, the things Suárez does well, Fried does better. My projections have the Braves as a play at -200 or better, as they are the better team and have the better pitcher.
Neither of these pitchers gives up a ton of hard contact — with Fried ranking in the Top 10% of any hard contact rate — while Suárez ranks in the Top 20% of these metrics. The big difference between these two pitchers comes in other areas. Suárez gives up a good amount of walks, but that’s not too relevant against the Braves. They swing more than anyone in baseball and consequently don’t walk much.
The issue for Suárez is his whiff rate. For as good as he is at inducing soft contact, he finds the ball on a bat. That’s a problem against the Braves. No matter how well you can cause soft touch. when you’re playing a team that ranks second in barrel rate and in hard-hit rate, you'd better create some swings and misses. I’m not sure Suárez can do enough of that.
We’ll be taking Fried to record a win today, so the other part of this handicap is how deep into the game he can go. In his last three starts against Philly, Fried has gone at least six innings. Actually, in every single start this season, he’s gone at least five full innings. Given that overwhelming data, it’s reasonable to expect him to go the length of the game required to record a win.
My projections give the Braves a 55% chance to lead after five innings. Since the data suggest it’s essentially a given that Fried will go five innings, I like my position here. The Braves are the better team as they’ve displayed throughout the season, and tonight, they have the better pitcher on the mound.
My best bet: Max Fried to record a win (+145 at DraftKings)
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Phillies vs Braves betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
I don’t see much reason to back up the current price. There are better ways to attack this game, whether on the line, a first five innings play, or the one displayed as our best bet.
Max Fried has easily been the most consistent starter, going over five innings in around 80% of his starts this season. Opposing him is a pitcher amid his most challenging stretch of the season, with Suarez posting an ERA nearing six in his last two combined starts and getting hit pretty hard.
The trends certainly like the Braves tonight, as the Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 meetings in Atlanta. It’s been a house of horrors for them. From just a detailed perspective, facing Atlanta while they are in the midst of a razor-thin divisional race seems less than ideal for Philly.
As I’ve spoken, I believe this Braves team is better than Philadelphia. I also think they’ll win tonight. If you want to pay for the juice, I think you’ll cash your bet. However, there are many better ways to back them tonight.
Over/Under analysis
There are a few lines of thought here.
The Over has been a pretty profitable bet in this series. It’s 4-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams, and the Over is 13-6 in the previous 19 meetings in Atlanta. However, we have two pretty strong pitchers on the mound tonight. Along with that, my projections are pointing to the Under.
I think my best angle on a side here is backing Fried in yet another way. That’s by taking Philly's first five Under Team Total of 1.5. I’ve explained in detail why I believe this is the right play. In many ways, it’s just a double backing of our best bet.
My projections have this hitting around 60% of the time. It’s a nice number vs. the current juice available. It’s the best way to attack a total here.
Phillies vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Friday, September 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports Southeast
Starting pitchers
Ranger Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA): This has been a solid season for Ranger Suarez. Much like his opponent, the key for him has been inducing the soft hit ball. His hard-hire rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate are all on the elite end of the spectrum. However, the problem for Suarez has been multiple. He has a BB% that ranks in the bottom 30% of pitchers and a whiff rate that ranks in the bottom 20%. His off-speed pitches have been elite; however, his fastball has been an issue. It’s posted a +7 run value and a batting average of .352.
Max Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA): Max Fried has been precisely what we’ve come accustomed to Max Fried being. All of the numbers are elite. What stands out the most is his ability to induce soft contact. Fried has a hard contact rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, both in the Top 10% of baseball. In addition, this season, Fried has posted the best ball-to-strike ratio in his career. There’s not a ton to nitpick in his game.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
