We have Game 2 of this best-of-three NL Wild Card series between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals.
Philadelphia scored six runs in the top of the ninth to win Game 1 by a score of 6-3. St. Louis closer Ryan Helsely came in with one out and allowed four earned runs on a hit, two walks, and a hit batsman.
Can the Cardinals keep their season alive? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, October 8.
Phillies vs Cardinals best odds
Phillies vs Cardinals picks and predictions
The Cards had Game 1 in their hip pockets, but the baseball gods had other ideas as St. Louis blew a two-run lead in the top of the ninth and now find itself one loss away from being eliminated from the playoffs.
Miles Mikolas has been steady as a rock this season at Busch Stadium, and he’s the right man for the job.
Mikolas has been stellar at home, posting a 6-3 record with 25 earned runs and 68 strikeouts over 94.2 innings pitched. His home xFIP is one point higher than his ERA, which suggests some luck is involved.
Saturday will be the first time Mikolas has faced the Phillies, but this collection of Philadelphia lumber has a career slash line of .273/.309/.442/.750 against him with 16 strikeouts and four bombs over 77 career at-bats.
Philadelphia does tend to strike out a bit. They whiffed seven times Friday afternoon, and their 22% strikeout rate could benefit Mikolas. The Cardinals hurler might get an extra K or two to add to his 6.56 K/9 season total.
Aaron Nola's a tough customer, and especially tough this season away from Citizens Bank Park. He might be 5-9 away from home, but he posts a 3.00 ERA with 36 earned runs and 124 K’s over 108 innings pitched. Nola has a filthier 2.67 away xFIP and this current collection of Cards slash .233/.252/.371/.623 with 23 K’s and three bombs over 116 career at-bats.
St. Louis lit Nola up at Busch in July. The veteran hurler scattered seven hits and five earned runs with seven Ks over seven frames. Since that July meeting, Nola has allowed five or more runs in three of his last 15 starts, which is a very good thing for the Cardinals.
St. Louis has too many veterans to allow a freakish inning lull them into a funk, and players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols aren’t going to be phased by that one bit and the best thing that could’ve happened Friday was the Cards scoring a run in the bottom of the ninth.
Finally, the Cardinals are 40-18 in their last 58 home games and 43-26 after a loss. The Cards are also 13-10 this season as the home underdog, which I’m backing them as Saturday night.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (+105 at Pinnacle)
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Phillies vs Cardinals Wild Card odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Phillies |
-295 |
 St. Louis Cardinals |
+240 |
Phillies vs Cardinals moneyline analysis
St. Louis opened at +104 and that number has risen to +105, and it will likely rise a couple more points after the public watches a few more ESPN segments. A couple points to add to the above analysis:
Nola has always been an enigma. He can be lights-out like he was in his last start on the road against the Astros, and then get carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey two starts ago against the Cubs. If you look at his game log, it seems to be a pattern this season.
Philly is 22-19 this season as an away favorite, and was 41-41 away from Citizens Bank Park. Conversely, the Cards went 13-10 as a home underdog and 53-29 at Busch Stadium this season
Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis
6.5 runs is the total, and you’ll be paying juice as high as -120 (Caesars) if the Over is to your liking. Meanwhile, the Under is where you’ll find even money at places like Caesars and +101 at Pinnacle. I don’t have a dog in this race, but I did find a couple of nuggets for you.
The Over is 21-20 this season when Philadelphia is the away favorite, and 12-12 when the Cardinals are the home underdog.
The Under is 8-4 when Nola pitches as the away favorite this season, while also 2-1 when Mikolas pitches as the home underdog.
Finally, the Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings, and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis.
Phillies vs Cardinals trend to know
Cardinals are 40-18 in their last 58 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cardinals
Phillies vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA): Nola is making the start Saturday and has given up eight earned runs with 37 punchouts over his previous 27.2 innings pitched. He posts a solid 2.74 xERA with a 2.77 xFIP, and his 2.67 away xFIP suggests Nola has been very unlucky this season.
Miles Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA): Mikolas will man the bump and has surrendered 10 earned runs with 26 strikeouts over his last 26 frames. He posts a 3.89 xERA with a 3.80 xFIP, but his 3.76 xFIP suggests what we see is what we get with the Cardinals righty.
Phillies vs Cardinals latest injuries
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Phillies vs Cardinals weather
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