The Chicago Cubs will desperately try to right their sinking ship on Tuesday night as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in the second contest of a four-game set at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs were clobbered 13-3 by the Phillies last night and have been in an absolute free fall lately. They come into this contest as +125 home underdogs with the Over/Under installed at 9.5.
Here are our best free Cubs vs. Phillies picks and predictions for MLB betting action on July 6.
Phillies vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, Marquee Sports Network
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:45 p.m. ET, Philadelphia is a -137 favorite at TwinSpires, after opening -120 and peaking at -143. "We saw some respected money come in on the Phillies on the opener," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The Cubs are getting 59 percent of moneyline tickets and the Phillies 62 percent of moneyline dollars. The total shifted from 9.5 to 10, with 78 percent of tickets/72 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.44 ERA): Nola is typically one of Philadelphia's most reliable starters but he has had an up-and-down season, pitching to a 1.22 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .253 through 95 1-3 innings. The right-hander is coming off an ugly performance against the Marlins where he surrendered nine hits and seven earned runs across 4 2-3 innings.
Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.57 ERA): A former World Series champion and NL Cy Young winner with the Cubs, Arrieta has not been able to regain that magic in his return to Chicago. The 35-year-old has pitched to a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .274 in 16 starts. He was given the hook midway through the second inning in his last outing after allowing six runs (three earned).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: None.
Cubs: Matt Duffy 3B (Out), David Bote 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 22-8-1 in the Cubs' last 31 games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs.
Moneyline pick
After last night's beatdown, the Cubs have now lost 10 contests in a row to fall 8.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Phillies are also below .500 but have been slightly more competitive lately, going 6-4 in their last 10 contests.
Both of these clubs go into tonight's game with struggling starters on the mound. Chicago's Arrieta has pitched to a woeful 7.13 ERA in his last nine starts while Nola has a 5.75 ERA in his previous 10 outings.
That said, Nola's numbers have been slightly better than Arrieta's across the board, both this season and in the previous three years when they were teammates with the Phillies.
While the Phillies haven't exactly been hitting the ball well, they've still been much better than the Cubs. Over the last 28 days, the Phillies are 17th in the majors with an OPS of .727 and 4.58 runs per game, while the Cubs rank dead-last with an OPS of .631 while plating just 3.12 runs per game.
We don't have much confidence in the Phillies, especially on the road, but we simply can't back the Cubs given their atrocious play lately. It's time for the Cubbies to trade away their veteran talent and for you to fade them on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia (-145)
Over/Under pick
With both Arrietta and Nola pitching so poorly it makes sense that the Over/Under is installed at a hefty 9.5 tonight. But given Chicago's horrific hitting lately, we have a tough time backing the Over. The Cubs have been limited to two or fewer runs in 15 of their last 21 contests and have averaged just 2.48 runs per game over that span.
The Phillies haven't been batting well on the road all season, plating 4.12 runs per game with an OPS of .689 in 42 away contests.
As bad as Arrieta has looked, the Cubs bullpen is one of the best around, leading the majors with an OBA of .194 while ranking second with a collective ERA of 3.24.
With the Under going 10-3-1 in the Cubs' last 14 games and 10-3 in the Phillies' previous 13 contests as a road favorite, take the Under tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 9.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Cubs betting card
- Philadelphia (-145)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/6/2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Phillies vs. Cubs picks, you could win $22.26 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
