The good news is the Chicago Cubs snapped their 11-game losing streak versus the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday night in an 8-3 win. The bad news is that they've still lost 11 of their last 12 and could be without Kris Bryant and Javier Baez going forward.
Chicago will be looking for a series split after the Phillies took the first two games by scoring 28 total runs but both clubs definitely need the victory as they each sit below .500.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Cubs on July 8.
Phillies vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, July 8, 2021
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, Marquee Sports Network
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires sportsbook pegged the Cubs slim -113 favorites at the outset, dropped down to -108, then went to -112, where the moneyline stands at 5 p.m. ET. The Phillies are seeing the majority of moneyline action, at 57 percent of tickets and 60 percent of dollars. The total is stable at 7.5, shaded toward the Under, which is taking 70 percent of tickets/59 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin (3-6, 4.13 ERA): Eflin has maintained a sub-4.20 ERA for 95 percent of the season and has only recorded one loss over his last six starts. He's coming off one of his better outings — three hits and two runs over six innings — and although his strikeout rate is down, he's still been an important piece in the Phillies’ rotation.
Adbert Alzolay (4-8, 4.48 ERA): Alzolay owns a pretty 1.08 WHIP but has dropped all four of his last starts as he has struggled with home runs this year. His 1.99 HR/9 is only worse than teammate Jake Arrieta in the NL. Alzolay also doesn’t induce much soft contact as 83 percent of his balls are medium- or high-hit balls. Asking him to get the Cubs out of the slump while he is in the middle of his own is asking a lot.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Odubel Herrera OF (Questionable), Matt Joyce OF (Out).
Cubs: Javier Baez SS (Questionable), Kris Bryant 3B (Questionable), David Bote 3B (Out), Matt Duffy 3B (Out), Kohl Stewart RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 0-6 SU in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs.
Moneyline pick
It’s been a disastrous two weeks for the Cubs, who were the owners of an 11-game losing streak heading into Wednesday’s contest with the Phillies. Philadelphia handed the Cubs their 11th straight loss on Tuesday night and has poured on the runs early in the series, scoring 31 over the first three games. The Cubs are a sinking ship and will need Alzolya, the 26-year-old right-hander, to steer them to calmer waters Thursday in primetime.
Alzolay has lost all four of his previous starts, allowing 16 runs in 17 2-3 innings. The young pitcher doesn’t give up a lot of hits (1.08 WHIP) but can struggle with his command from time to time and gives up the long ball. Opponents have taken Alzolay deep seven times over his last 17 2-3 innings. On the year, 16 of the 57 hits the Cubs’ pitcher has allowed have been four-baggers while the Phillies launched eight homers in the series’ first two games alone.
Countering Alzolay will be Eflin. The Phillies’ right-hander is coming off back-to-back quality starts where he allowed just three runs over 12 innings with eight hits and one homer. Those two solid games were against the Padres and the Mets so Eflin isn’t padding his stats against the NL’s worst. In his four career games against the Cubs, Eflin has a 2.81 ERA and a 2.18 ERA in three starts at Wrigley.
The Phillies have also had their way with the Cubs, winning six of the last seven meetings against Chicago. And injuries to Bryant and Baez are very concerning for a team that was already struggling to win.
With the Twitterverse telling management to “blow it up” the Cubs are likely at a proverbial fork in the road. This team could look very different after the August 1 trade deadline. With a substantial amount of ground to make up in the divisional race, the Cubs’ season could be toast. We aren’t backing a team where trade rumors could be swirling around a losing clubhouse.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia (-110)
Over/Under pick
Despite the insane run support in the series (52 combined runs in three games) both clubs have been profitable to the Under this year with Chicago leading the way with a 33-48-5 O/U mark. The public will likely be all over this Over today after the first three games of the series topped their totals and with a pair of inconsistent hurlers on the mound. However, we are taking a different approach with it on Thursday.
Possibly losing Baez and Bryant to the lineup is a massive blow for the Chicago offense. Yes, Patrick Wisdom will replace Bryant in the order, but the young infielder has just two hits in his last 14 at-bats and has just one multi-hit game in his last 27 contests. Sergio Alcantara will replace Baez if he can’t go again on Thursday. The young shortstop went 0-for-4 last night and is batting .173 on the year with minimal at-bats.
Eflin has done more than a decent job at giving quality innings and is 2-7 O/U in his last nine turns. He has pitched exceptionally well at Wrigley over his career, owning a 2.18 ERA in three career starts at the ivy-walled park.
As much as Alzolay has given up the long ball, batters have had a hard time getting anything else off him. His WHIP is low thanks to just 57 hits allowed over 72-plus innings and if the wind continues to blow in from center at 14 mph until first pitch, the Chicago starter could have a lot of help from Mother Nature in knocking down those fly balls.
We like the Under in the final game of the series.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Cubs betting card
- Philadelphia (-110)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/8/2021 at 9.56 a.m. ET
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