The Philadelphia Phillies have stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers, taking the first two games of this four-game series. The bats have come alive on both ends, with 38 runs between the two teams in the first two contests.
Can the Phillies continue to go punch for punch with the Dodgers or will Los Angeles put its foot down and give itself a chance to tie up the series heading into tomorrow?
Continue reading for our free MLB picks and predictions for the Phillies vs Dodgers matchup on Saturday, May 14th.
Phillies vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as large -175 favorites and have since moved to as high as -200 at some books. The total opened at 8.0 and has stayed at that number, with the Over being juiced.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 5/14/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, May 14, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NBCS-PHI
Phillies vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ranger Suarez (3-1, 3.68 ERA: Suarez is quietly one of the MLB's best young arms, possessing a 2.79 career ERA in his five seasons thus far. The southpaw began working as a regular starter last season, pitching to 1.51 ERA and 8.9 K/9 marks in his 12 starts. He turned in a quality performance in his last outing, allowing zero earned runs and striking out seven against the Mariners.
Julio Urias (2-2, 2.10 ERA): Urias is perhaps what Suarez hopes to be in a few years, having made the full-time transition into the rotation a few seasons ago and maintaining a high level of play. He turned in an absurd 20-3 record and a 2.96 ERA to boot in 2021 and has an even better 2.10 ERA to start 2022. He also turned in a quality start his last time out, allowing just two earned runs against the Pirates.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Mickey Moniak CF (Out).
Dodgers: Victor Gonzalez RP (Questionable), Will Smith C (Out), Mitch White RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies play to the Over at the fifth-highest rate in the league, going 17-14-2 (54.8%) that way. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers
Phillies vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Julio Urias is a shining example of player development. The 25-year-old has always been a great arm (3.03 career ERA), but he spent much of his early career pitching out of the bullpen as a long-relief arm.
Last year, Urias broke through as a full-time starter, posting a league-best 20-3 record and accumulating eight more wins on the year than he had in his entire career up to that point. He also put together a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP while striking out 195 batters over 185 2-3 innings pitched. He has carried that elevated play into 2022 thus far, posting a 2.10 ERA after allowing just four earned runs in his last five starts.
On top of that, Urias has strung together three straight quality starts (starts of six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs) and will look to extend that streak tonight to give the Dodgers a chance to get their first win in this four games set against the Phillies. A good outing from a starter is exactly what the Dodgers need at this point, seeing as Tyler Anderson allowed seven earned runs on Thursday and Walker Buehler allowed another five last night.
The offense has more than pulled their weight, scoring 17 runs across the first two games of the series and widening their lead in runs per game (5.35). Their patience and discipline at the plate are most notable, leading the league in walk rate (11.0%) and eighth in strikeout rate (21.3%).
They will go up against Ranger Suarez, who is essentially the Phillies' version of Julio Urias, or at least hopes to be in the near future. Prior to last season, Suarez too worked primarily out of the bullpen, logging just three starts from 2018 to 2020. In Suarez's 12 starts last year, Suarez maintained a sterling 1.51 ERA and struck out 65 batters in 65 2-3 innings pitched.
Suarez has not kept the scorecards as clean in 2022 but still has maintained a 3.68 ERA. He shut out the Mariners in his last game, allowing just four hits and two walks while striking out seven in the process. The possibility of that type of outing on top of the Phillies' surge in run production makes them a great value proposition tonight.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (+170 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
Despite the crazy run outputs of the last two games, the Dodgers still remain one of the most Under-friendly teams in the MLB at 17-12-2 (58.6%). On the other hand, the Phillies tend to lean towards the Over, going 17-14-2 (54.8%) that way which is good for the fifth-best mark in the league.
Weather projections have the game starting with a 79-degree temperature and 27% humidity, marks that are both outside the humidor standards in which balls are stored, and elements that are directionally in favor of run output.
Given that both pitchers have seen regressed strikeout rates this year compared to their marks last year, batters on both sides may find their way on base enough to make use of tonight's conditions.
Prediction: Over 8 (-115 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Urias has more than proved his merit as one of the league's best pitchers as of late, and the Dodgers remain the league's top-scoring offense. The Phillies' bats have woken up in a serious way in the first two games of this series, however, and they have also managed to score four runs or more in five straight games now.
Add in that Ranger Suarez may be one of the league's most underappreciated starters as of late, and the odds for this game really only point to one side being the right bet. Expect the Phillies to put themselves in a position for a four-game sweep heading into tomorrow's game.
Pick: Phillies moneyline (+170 at Caesars)
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