The Phillies (73-40) and Mets (63-49) meet Saturday night for the second meeting of a three-game series.
Philadelphia took game one by a final score of 2-1, handing a loss to Max Scherzer.
Saturday’s iteration has the making of a pitching duel, with Aaron Nola on the bump for the Phillies and Jacob deGrom getting the nod for the Mets.
Will the Mets add to their NL-second-best record, or will the Phillies gain ground?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets on Saturday, August 13.
Phillies vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as 186 favorites at home. Currently, the line resides between -185 and -200 depending on the book. The total has been set at 6.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 8/13/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Saturday, August 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-PHI, SNY
Phillies vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA): After posting a career-worst 4.63 ERA a year ago, Nola has gotten back on track in 2022. His 2.84 xERA and 2.84 FIP are both the lowest numbers of his career, so his peripherals are very encouraging. His walk rate is down to 3.6%, also a career-low. His 5.5% barrel rate is close to league average.
Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA): The star right-hander has made only two appearances this season. He’s still being stretched out, as he threw 59 pitches in his first outing and 76 in his last one. It’s difficult to tell over such a small sample, but he appears to be in his usual form. He has a 1.08 ERA across 15 starts last season and his 1.16 xERA this season is phenomenal.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 30-5 in their last 35 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets
Phillies vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Both teams enter this game hot, winning eight of their last 10 games. The Mets have the second-best record in the National League, while the Phillies are 9.5 games back in the NL East divisional standings and are currently hanging onto the second Wild Card spot.
Each team sends their ace to the hill. Aaron Nola is a fantastic pitcher posting the best peripheral numbers of his career, but the pitching advantage in this matchup still lies with the Mets. Jacob deGrom has been a dominant force in baseball, and early indications are that he’s performing at the same level we’re accustomed to in years past.
As far as the lineups go, the advantage also lies with the Mets. New York ranks first in both wOBA and wRC+ over the last 15 days. This is a deep lineup with star power.
The Phillies’ lineup has also been hot, ranking fourth in wOBA and sixth in wRC+ over that same time period. Those are solid numbers and they have a very good starting pitcher on the mound — but they’re at a disadvantage in both areas still.
The Mets haven’t shied away from performing against top teams, going 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. They’re 47-23 in their last 70 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Even though they lost Game 1, I expect them to bounce back. They’re 39-19 in their last 58 games following a loss, so they’ve been responding well in this spot.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-185 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
There’s a reason this total is set at 6.5 — that’s a low number, and it’s warranted.
Aaron Nola has made the needed adjustments to his game after posting a career-worst ERA a season ago. His xERA, FIP, and walk rate are all career-best numbers. His WHIP is 0.95 is also very encouraging.
As for deGrom, his name speaks for itself at this point. He may not be fully stretched out yet, but he’s likely to see close to his full allotment of pitches after throwing 76 his last time out.
The Under is 4-0 in the Phillies’ last four games overall and 11-5 in their last 16 road games. As for the Mets, the Under is 9-1 in their last 10 Game 2s of a series.
Both of these lineups have been hot, so that’s a bit scary, but the higher confidence in this spot belongs with the pitching. Jacob deGrom is a threat to blank any team, even on their best day, and Nola is an ace posting some of the best numbers of his career.
I’m siding with the Under.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The Mets have the hottest lineup in baseball and also will have the best pitcher in the league on the mound Saturday.
It’s not a sure thing that deGrom sees a full workload, as this is just his third start since returning to the rotation. But that still leaves plenty of room for him to be effective, but I will opt to keep my bet to the first five innings to ensure it’s focusing on deGrom.
The Mets are listed at -115 to win in the first five innings. Considering the Mets rank first in the league in virtually every advanced statistic at the plate across the last 15 days, it’s safe to say this lineup can do some damage in any matchup. Expecting them to get held down again after losing 2-1 in the first game of the series? I might think again — the Mets are 30-5 in their last 35 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game.
As for deGrom, he posted a 1.53 xERA last season and has a 1.16 xERA this year — dominant numbers.
I’ll take the Mets on the run line in the first five innings.
Pick: Mets -0.5 first five innings (-115 at BetMGM)
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