The New York Mets look to complete a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Mets have been on a roll and boast the National League’s second-best record behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ll send Chris Bassitt to the mound in a duel with Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Will the Mets complete the sweep, or will Wheeler & Co. pull through with a much-needed win?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Phillies vs. Mets on Sunday, May 29 to find out. Be sure to also take a peek at our favorite MLB betting player props for tonight's matchup!
Phillies vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as -116 favorites. At the time of this writing, New York can be had from -114 to -118 depending on the book. The total has been set at 7.5 across all books and hasn't seen any movement by late Sunday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/29/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Sunday, May 29, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Phillies vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.38 ERA): Wheeler has been fantastic in his first two seasons with the Phillies, keeping his ERA below 3.00 in both campaigns. His ERA is up a tad this season, but all of his other peripherals are impressive. He strikes out plenty of batters (10.13 K/9) while limiting walks (1.99 BB/9). His 2.33 FIP is excellent and he limits hard contact (3.3% barrel rate). He’s the complete package.
Chris Bassitt (4-2, 3.91 ERA): This is Bassitt’s first year in New York after spending six seasons in the Oakland Athletics’ starting rotation. His ERA is up this year from his 3.50 career mark, and his 4.54 FIP is a tad concerning. He usually does a good job of limiting walks (2.88 career BB/9). His home run rate is up (1.53 HR/9 in 2022 compared to 0.96 in his career), which will likely regress to the mean eventually.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Didi Gregorius SS (Out), Mickey Moniak CF (Out), Rafael Alejandro Marchan C (Out), Ryan Sherriff RP (Out), Sam Coonrod RP (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out).
Mets: Brandon Nimmo LF (Questionable), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), James McCann C (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets
Phillies vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
I am a big fan of Zack Wheeler’s profile. He seemingly does everything well on the mound when examining his peripherals. You know exactly what to expect from him at this point, as his statistical profile has remained somewhat constant since making the move to Philadelphia. Chris Bassitt is a solid pitcher in his own right, but the advantage lies with Philadelphia.
The Phillies aren’t bad offensively — they just aren’t on the level of the Mets. Philadelphia remarkably ranks 10th in the league in runs per game, batting average, OPS, and home runs. New York, meanwhile, ranks third in runs per game, second in batting average, and fourth in OPS. New York ranks third in wOBA while the Phillies, of course, check in at tenth.
This is a relatively close matchup and that’s reflected in the betting line. Wheeler misses a lot of bats, doesn’t issue many walks, and successfully limits hard contact. I give the Phillies the edge for that reason.
Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 games after losing the first two games of a series. The edge isn’t a big one in this matchup, but the Phillies can be had for even money and I give them the slight advantage with Wheeler on the mound.
Philadelphia’s woeful bullpen is always a concern, but Wheeler is a consistent threat to pitch deep into games as he’s pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Predicting the total in Sunday Night baseball is a dicey proposition at this point. There have been some not-so-quiet rumors about the ball being juiced to allow for more runs in the week’s most-watched game.
A few high-scoring games capitalized by a 14-6 barn burner between the Giants and Cardinals two weeks ago seemed to give credence to this rumor. Then, what happened last week? The high-scoring Yankees were shut out 5-0 by Michael Kopech and the Chicago White Sox.
I would not recommend playing totals on Sunday Night baseball at the moment. Mets players, in particular, have been vocal about their concern that MLB is using juiced baseballs for games being broadcast on national TV and scores have been all over the place for Sunday Night Baseball.
If I were to handicap this game with no concerns about the baseball (which I’m not!), I would recommend the Under. I’m a big fan of Wheeler, and Bassitt is no slouch in his own right. The Under is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at Unibet)
Best bet
I’m backing Philadelphia in this spot. They’ve done a good job in recent history of staving off the sweep, going 10-2 in their last 12 games after dropping the first two games of a series.
Wheeler is a starting pitcher I like to ride and I believe he gives the Phillies a slight advantage in this close matchup.
Pick: Phillies moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
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