The Pittsburgh Pirates look to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves when they meet for Game 3 of their three-game series at Truist Park.
The Pirates have already struck out 25 times during this series, and with the Braves being large favorites to win this game, we’ll look for value in a Spencer Schwellenbach strikeout prop.
Read on for my Pirates vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, June 30.
Pirates vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Spencer Schwellenbach 6+ strikeouts (+144 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves are looking for a series sweep this afternoon, and Braves rookie righty Spencer Schwellenbach is tasked with stopping the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Michigan native has pitched well for the Braves during his rookie season; he’s striking out 8.5 hitters per nine innings, the walks are manageable (2.36), and his 3.38 xFIP looks good compared to his 5.40 ERA.
Schwellenbach is coming off a tough outing at St. Louis as he registered six strikeouts but took the loss after scattering eight hits and four earned runs across five frames. It was the second consecutive 6+ strikeout start for the rookie, and he has a good chance to whiff six today against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh boasts the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties in the game. They’ve struck out 25 times across the first two games of this series and they’ll send at least five Pirates to the dish today with 25% strikeout rates or higher against righties.
That should bode well for the Braves rookie to rack up K’s today. Schwellenbach boasts a 42% chase rate which hasn’t gotten him the strikeouts yet but could today. That chase rate is key as he’s striking out a shade over 9 per nine innings at home and the strikeout-prone Pittsburgh sticks will be extremely aggressive after plating only two runs this weekend.
The Atlanta rookie has pitched five frames or more in four of his five starts and if he can get at least 15 outs, Schwellenbach ends his start with at least six strikeouts.
Pirates vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Schwellenbach 6+ strikeouts
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI
Braves -1.5
Schwellenbach having a big day from the mound is my best bet, but I like the Braves to win this game by two or more runs and for DH Marcell Ozuna to drive in a run.
Pirates starter Bailey Falter has dropped his last four decisions and meets an Atlanta offense that batters lefties with a BABIP that’s 50 points higher than their batting average. Falter has allowed 10 home runs to righties, and he’ll see at least seven today, including Ozuna.
Ozuna has gone hitless in four of his last five but his lone hit during this stretch was against a lefty. The Braves slugger boasts a .448 BABIP and is batting .400 against lefty heaters. Ozuna has an RBI two of his last 10 but his solid matchup should help fuel a high-scoring day for the Bravos.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Braves odds
Pirates vs Braves live odds
Pirates vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-130) | Atlanta -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +150 | Atlanta -180
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-125) | Under 9 (+105)
Pirates vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The opening odds haven’t changed much. Pirates markets are trading at the opening +150 while the Braves are priced on opening odds from -178 to -185.
- 92% of the bets and 62% of the cash at Caesars is on the Braves moneyline while 8% of the wagers and 30% of the money at DraftKings is on the Pirates.
- You’ll pay heavy juice for Over 9 markets (-115 to -120) while Under 9.5 markets are widely available and trading at -112 to -120.
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Pirates vs Braves trend
Schwellenbach has 6+ strikeouts in two of his last three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Braves
Pirates vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 11:35 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Roku |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Bailey Falter (3-6, 4.00 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (1-3, 5.40 ERA) |
Pirates vs Braves latest injuries
Pirates vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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