National League Central rivals Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs open up a four-game set tonight at Wrigley Field.
Pittsburgh enters this game coming off a sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers while Chicago has dropped four of its last six. So, both teams will be looking to build some momentum this weekend. But who has the baseball betting edge in the opener? Will the Cubbies come through as a home favorite or do the Buccos have value as an underdog?
Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Pirates vs. Cubs on Thursday, April 21.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cubs opened this NL Central showdown as roughly -135 home favorites and have seen the early money, moving the line to -160. The total hit the board at 8.5 but some books have started to offer it at 9.0 as late as Thursday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Pirates vs Cubs predictions
- Prediction: Pirates ML (+142)
- Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120)
- Best bet: Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Picks made on 4/21/2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Pirates vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, ATTSN-PIT
Pirates vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Bryse Wilson (0-0, 5.40 ERA): Wilson has had a tough start to his 2022 campaign. The right-hander has surrendered five runs on nine hits with four walks in 8 1-3 innings of work over his first two starts so far this season.
Mark Leiter Jr. (0-1, 18.90 ERA): It had been a while since Leiter Jr. had pitched in the majors and that’s what it looked like in his first start since 2017, getting whacked for seven runs on five hits in 3 1-3 innings against the Rockies.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Pirates: No key injuries to report.
Cubs: Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), David Bote 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-1 in the Cubs' last 11 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
Pirates vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Pirates and Cubs split their first two meetings of the season and now will play four games in a row at Wrigley Field with both teams looking to bounce back from a rough patch.
Pittsburgh got off to a respectable start to this season, going 5-4 before a humbling series with the Milwaukee Brewers that saw it score a total of just five runs. But you can give it a little break on that, as the Brewers have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
And even with that low-scoring series, the Buccos haven’t been all that bad at the dish so far. They rank 10th in batting average and 15th in OPS at this point.
On the other side, a good offense but shaky pitching staff has the Cubbies off to a 6-6 start. Shaky is putting it nicely as they hand the ball to Mark Leiter Jr. tonight. The righty hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2017 before making a start last week against the Rockies and it showed. Colorado jumped all over Leiter for seven runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1-3 innings.
Chicago is hoping its offense that ranks third in batting average and OPS and eighth in scoring can generate some offense tonight. They’ll get a good shot to produce against Wilson, who has been hit hard so far this season.
With both teams getting good innings from their bullpens so far it feels like the Cubs shouldn’t be favored by this much with Leiter on the bump. Lean towards the underdogs here.
Prediction: Pirates moneyline (+142 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
While the side for this NL Central matchup has an uneasy feeling no matter what side you’re on, you can bet the total with a little more confidence.
For starters, this Cubs offense has been one of the best in baseball so far this season and has been very effective against right-handed pitching, ranking sixth in batting average and seventh in OPS. They should be able to jump on Wilson who has an expected ERA of 8.03 and an opponent expected batting average of .346 this season.
We also talked about how the Pirates’ hitters have been surprisingly respectable, averaging 5.43 runs per game in the seven games prior to the Brewers series. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them get close to that average in this matchup against Leiter.
Throw in a wind blowing out to the right field at Wrigley and the Over looks like a solid bet.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
While the Over looks like a solid bet, nothing looks better than Seiya Suzuki to go Over his total bases prop.
The Cubbies rookie outfielder looks like something special. Suzuki is hitting .387 with a 1.404 OPS with four dingers in his short time with the club. He also has a great eye at the plate, showing he doesn’t swing at bad pitches.
It’s hard to figure out why we are getting plus money like this on Suzuki’s total bases prop today, particularly considering he’s hit .444 with a 1.426 OPS against right-handers and has gone Over this number six times in the last nine games he’s started.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
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