There’s a beautiful slate of Major League Baseball games on Memorial Day, the last of which will be the nightcap between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers sit atop the NL West standings and have the best record in baseball at 33-14, a half-game above the Yankees at 33-15. They’ve been hot, too, winning eight of their last 10.
Will the Dodgers build on that MLB-best record, or will the Pirates pull off a Memorial spoiler?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, May 30 to find out.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as big -275 favorites at home. The line has moved even further in their favor, sitting between -333 and -350 depending on the book at current. The total opened at 8 across all books and has not moved.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Pirates vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 5/30/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Pirates vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, May 30, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, SportsNet LA
Pirates vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Thompson (2-4, 5.50 ERA): Things haven’t gone well for Thompson in 2022, as his 5.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP indicate. The 27-year-old righty stands 6-foot-7 and looks to establish a fastball/slider combination. His 7.08 KK/9 and 3.67 BB/9 aren’t particularly encouraging — he walks too many batters and doesn’t strike many out. His 4.77 FIP also isn’t a positive sign.
Walker Buehler (6-1, 2.91 ERA): At this point, Buehler has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the National League. He was one of the sport’s brightest stars in 2021, going 16-4 with a sterling 2.47 ERA. He’s off to yet another strong start, although it is curious that his strikeouts are down significantly (7.18 KK/9 in 2022, down from 9.69 KK/9 in his career). Despite the drop in strikeouts, he’s done a good job of limiting hard contact (3.2% barrel rate).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Pirates: Michael Chavis 3B (Questionable), Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 1B (Out), Kevin Newman (Out), Roberto Perez C (Out), Ben Gamel LF (Out), Greg Allen CF (Out).
Dodgers: Max Muncy 1B (Out), Jimmy Nelson RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle (Out), Blake Treinen RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 43-10 in their last 53 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers
Pirates vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
There’s a reason that the Dodgers are established as such a large favorite in this spot. Thompson may be tall, but that’s about all I can say about his profile that doesn’t come across as negative. His peripherals are concerning, and he walks too many batters while not being a strikeout pitcher.
Buehler gives the Dodgers a huge starting pitching advantage in this spot. His 3.2% barrel rate indicates that he’s committed more to limiting hard contact since his strikeout rate has conspicuously fallen off a cliff.
The Dodgers have more offensive firepower, and it isn’t particularly close. Los Angeles is the top-scoring offense in the league (5.64 runs per game) while also ranking first in OPS (.766). The Pirates are near the cellar of basically every single offensive statistic, ranking 29th in runs per game (3.45), 27th in batting average (.221), and 28th in OPS (.643).
The Dodgers have been hot at the plate, ranking second in wOBA and wRC+ over their last 10 games. As expected, the Pirates can be found near the bottom of the table in both categories.
This is a one-sided handicap. The price is steep, but it’s that way for a reason.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-333 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers lineup is hot and should be expected to get to Thompson early and often. He's not a terrible pitcher, but he pitches to contact and walks too many batters. When the Dodgers are swinging the sticks this well, it’s best to expect them to plate their fair share of runs.
Can we expect the Pirates to contribute to the total? I’m not so confident. Buehler’s elite 3.2%-barrel rate indicates that he should be able to limit hard contact against one of the most futile lineups in baseball. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the majors dating back to the beginning of last season, and we can expect another solid performance here.
I have no confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to contribute runs, so I must target the Under.
The Under is 4-0-2 in the Pirates' last six games as a road underdog and 4-0-2 in the Pirates' last six road games.
Prediction: Under 8 (+105 at Caesars)
Best bet
Given the discrepancy between starting pitchers and lineups, I want to target the Dodgers in this matchup. The moneyline price is unplayable, so I’ll be targeting game props for my best bet.
One prop I like is Walker Buehler to record a win. The price isn’t great though, as it’s above EVEN odds at most books. Laying juice on a prop like that usually isn’t advisable, but it does seem to have a good chance of cashing.
The prop I will use is the Dodgers team total Over 5. Los Angeles averages the most runs per game (5.64), so we only need an average offensive output to hit this Over. The Dodgers have been swinging the sticks well (second in wOBA and wRC+ in the last 10 games) and have a good matchup against the unproved Thompson.
Pick: Dodgers team total Over 5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Pirates vs. Dodgers picks, you could win $38.87 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
