Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Gil Shines in Return

Prop bet #1: Jeez, Luis

We're heading to the desert as the Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Yankees on Monday evening. Right-hander Luis Gil is taking the mound for New York and he should be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department.

While he's not pitched in a regular-season game since 2022, the right-hander has shown promise in punching out opposing hitters. Through his seven combined career starts between 2021 and 2022, Gil boasts a 29.1% strikeout rate.

He recorded 6+ strikeouts in five of those seven outings but we're also catching a great +112 price on this prop at FanDuel, a line that's 30-40 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Luis Gil prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Where's Waldron?

Staying in the same late window of Monday’s MLB slate, the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals. San Diego is handing the ball to right-hander Matt Waldron, who I'll happily fade.

Although he only made eight appearances on the mound during his rookie campaign in 2023, Waldron struggled with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Although he didn't officially qualify, his underlying metrics were even worse as he would have ranked in the Bottom 50th percentile among all pitchers in xERA, xBA, and barrel rate.

Waldron also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the bottom quarter in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. Subsequently, he recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of those eight outings on the mound last year.

Matt Waldron prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: No Ks for Kyle

We're also going to fade Kyle Gibson, the Cardinals' starting pitcher. He's continued to regress over the past two seasons, finishing each year with an ERA north of 4.7 and a WHIP of 1.32 or higher.

His analytics in 2023 suggest that positive regression is unlikely at this point of his career, given the right-hander ranked in the Bottom 25th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate. He also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the 23rd percentile in strikeout rate.

Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against San Diego, a team that ranked sixth in the league last year in K-rate when facing right-handed pitching. Over his past five games against the Padres, Gibson possesses a fade-worthy 5.16 ERA.

He recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of those five outings.

Kyle Gibson prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)