Robbie Ray looks well on the road to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and I'm expecting his comeback to continue tonight against a weak-hitting Detroit Tigers lineup.
The veteran southpaw headlines my MLB picks today as I dive into the odds board to bring you my three favorite bets. Here are my best free MLB player props for Friday, August 9.
MLB props for August 9
- Robbie Ray o6.5 strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel)
- Bryce Harper o1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
- Jose Quintana u2.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Robbie Ray Over 6.5 strikeouts
Robbie Ray saw almost his entire 2023 season wiped out by Tommy John surgery, but he's back on the mound and throwing heat. After a few rehab stints in the minors, Ray made his season debut for the San Francisco Giants on July 24, fanning eight batters through five hitless innings against the Dodgers.
He followed up that spectacular performance with an ugly outing against the A's but still struck out four batters through 4 1/3 innings in that contest. He bounced back with another strong start last weekend, allowing three hits and racking up eight punchouts in five innings versus the Reds.
Ray was third in the majors in strikeouts per 9 innings (12.1) in 2019 before leading the majors with 248 Ks in 2021, and he seems to have gotten back to that level. His four-seamer is averaging 94.7 mph, which is nearly identical to his 2021 Cy Young campaign, and he's also throwing his slider slightly harder at 89.2 mph.
The southpaw now faces a Detroit Tigers lineup that ranks 23rd in home runs per game (1.01). The Over 17.5 outs for Ray is juiced to -140, which suggests that he'll see his pitch count increase. That should help him eclipse 6.5 Ks against a Tigers squad that strikes out at the ninth-highest rate in baseball.
Prop bet #2: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Despite missing 15 games with a hamstring injury, Philadelphia Phillies superstar Bryce Harper ranks 22nd in the majors in total bases (207) while slugging .539. The three-time Silver Slugger recipient is slugging .573 over the last two months and has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in five of his last six contests.
Tonight, Harper and the Phillies are facing the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson. The Snakes hurler has a 4.65 ERA with an OBA of .282 through 110 1/3 innings, and those numbers surge to 5.33 and .303 at home.
Chase Field ranks as the No. 2 park in majors for left-handed hitters, and it also has the second-highest elevation. With the left-handed Harper boasting the platoon advantage in this matchup and going 3-for-6 in his career against Nelson, Over 1.5 total bases is the play.
Prop bet #3: Jose Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs
The New York Mets are sending veteran Jose Quintana to the mound for tonight's matchup against the Seattle Mariners. After posting a solid 3.13 ERA over the last two years, Quintana's ERA has ticked up to 3.95 in 22 starts this season.
That said, he's been throwing much better over the last two months and faces a struggling Mariners lineup tonight. Quintana has allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in seven of his last nine starts, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with an OBA of .186 during that span.
The Mariners are just 28th in the majors in OPS (.669) and that number dips to .661 against southpaws like Quintana. The M's also play their home games at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile park, where they plate just 3.45 runs per game with an OPS of .633.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Today’s MLB games
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