It’s the first weekend of the Major League Baseball season, and we have a full slate of Saturday action. It also means there’s a ton of player props to pick from across the board.
Here are the three best MLB player props we’ve identified for March 29.
Best MLB player props today
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+550 at DraftKings)
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at bet365)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at BetMGM)
MLB props for March 29
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+550 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer has faced off with Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. more than any other hitter in his career. He’s often walked away from those encounters feeling miserable.
That’s probably because in 30 career plate appearances vs the Baltimore pitcher, Guerrero has a 1.364 OPS and has sent five pitches over the fence. That includes a bomb in their last meeting when the Blue Jays won 7-6 at home back in August.
In that contest, Guerrero smoked a double into center in his first appearance. In his second appearance, he hit a deep fly ball down the right-field line that came just feet away from going out.
But in his third at-bat, he crushed a pitch out to center for a two-run bomb that chased Kremer in the fifth inning.
Kremer ranked in the 13th percentile last season in barrel rate and was bottom-third among all starters in fastball velocity, ERA, and whiff rate. And he’s coming off a spring training in which he gave up six home runs in just over 17 innings of work.
You can get Vlad Jr to notch multiple bases for plus-odds, and I’d strongly recommend that play as well. But fortune favors the bold, which is why I’m going for the bigger payday and backing him to go yard at DraftKings—especially since this prop is +450 in some places.
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at bet365)
I’d play this one quickly before it moves. Given this prop is minus-odds at every other book, getting it at +115 via bet365 is a massive steal.
The reason it’s priced lower elsewhere is two-fold.
First, the Giants won the first game of the series 6-4 due to a bullpen meltdown, not because of how they performed at the plate.
San Francisco hitters struck out a whopping 17 times in 35 plate appearances, including a hat trick from Willy Adames and Heliot Ramos.
Adames won’t be thrilled to see Nick Lodolo taking the mound. He hit sub-.200 last season against left-handed pitching and struggles mightily to hit the curve.
That’s probably why he’s just a 2-for-10 lifetime with four strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds’ pitcher.
He’s not alone, though. In 31 all-time showdowns, current Giant hitters have just six hits and nine strikeouts against Lodolo. And last season, he notched six Ks in six innings in a 5-1 loss against them.
Lodolo looked very strong in spring training, striking out 13 batters over 10 innings in his final two starts while allowing just six hits.
With his curveball drawing a whiff rate of 42.9% last season, his strikeout prop presents terrific value against a free-swinging lineup.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at BetMGM)
While Houston Astros OF Yordan Alvarez has yet to record a hit in 2025, it’s not been a terrible start for the slugger.
He’s drawn three walks in eight plate appearances and hit a sacrifice fly in last night’s 3-1 loss to the New York Mets.
In fact, Alvarez has shown tremendous patience at the plate. He’s swung at the first pitch just once, a big drop in a metric that has topped 32% over the last two seasons.
He’s also cut down on his chase rate so far, albeit a small sample size, and has seen only one pitch so far that was in a dangerous location.
Saturday presents an opportunity for him to get off the mark in a big way.
Alvarez has faced Griffin Canning 13 times in his career, and he’s slugged 1.077 off the Mets’ pitcher.
He’s notched seven hits, including a pair of home runs and a double.
That includes getting two hits in the first three innings when the two met back in September.
It was the third meeting between the Astros and Canning’s Angels team last season, and Alvarez had multi-hit games in all three outings.
Canning struggled mightily last season with pitch location, lacks velocity, and tends to get hit quite hard.
With Alvarez showing more patience at the plate early in the season and Canning having a career meatball rate of 7%, there’s a very strong chance we see the slugger once again give him fits.
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