There’s all-day action on the diamond, and our top MLB player props feature a trio of starting pitchers in tough matchups.
Texas Rangers lefty Cody Bradford is first to the hill against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres righty Michael King will wrap it up at T-Mobile Park against the Seattle Mariners tonight.
MLB props for September 11
- Cody Bradford Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115 at BetRivers)
- Jack Kochanowicz Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160 at DraftKings)
- Michael King Under 17.5 outs (+150 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Cody Bradford Under 17.5 outs recorded
Texas Rangers lefty Cody Bradford is eyeing statistical correction with an unsustainably low .185 batting average and .220 BABIP allowed with his 2.43 ERA also considerably lower than his 3.94 xFIP across his past six starts. The Arizona Diamondbacks are just the team to pounce on the pending negative regression, too.
Arizona ranks second in both wOBA (.336) and on-base percentage (.341) against southpaws for the season, and the Diamondbacks have paced the bigs in both metrics since the All-Star break while averaging 6.38 runs per game. Additionally, Chase Field has been kind to the home team, with Arizona again pacing the majors in wOBA (.343), OBP (.346), and runs per game (5.61).
Prop bet #2: Jack Kochanowicz Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
Los Angeles Angels righty Jack Kochanowicz has been handed a long leash over his past five starts, pitching six or more innings in each. It’s a prove-it stretch for the 23-year-old righty, and he’s finding his way to the tune of a lackluster 4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 4.86 xFIP. My MLB picks anticipate him having every opportunity to pitch deep into Wednesday’s game, too.
The Minnesota Twins are a tough draw. They’ve been solid against right-handed pitchers with a ninth-ranked .322 wOBA and eighth-ranked .321 on-base percentage, but are in a mini-funk of late with the second-lowest BABIP (.249) in baseball over the past two weeks. With Kochanowicz relying primarily on a two-pitch mix and neither grading out positively, per FanGraphs, I expect the Twins offense to find its groove against the inexperienced righty.
Finally, I also value this total dropping from an opening 3.5 to 2.5. While the vig is high, it’s a fair number and a tax I’m comfortable paying with the Minny bats positioned to break out.
Prop bet #3: Michael King Under 17.5 outs
The Seattle Mariners offense is heating up of late, and San Diego Padres righty Michael King is already well above last year’s career-high 104 2/3 innings with 156 2/3 this season, including tossing 100 pitches across six frames last time out. While King continues to pitch well with a sharp 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 3.07 xFIP since the All-Star break, the Mariners have plated 5.5 runs per game with a beefy .350 wOBA and a league-high .354 on-base percentage and 10.6 BB% across the past two weeks.
San Diego is in the thick of the NL wild-card race and has consistently gone to the bullpen early when needed down the stretch. Additionally, while the dip has been minor, all four of King’s offerings have lower pitch values across his past six starts compared to his first 22 outings of the season, per FanGraphs. The career-high innings and pitch count are catching up to the former reliever.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
