It’s a bases-loaded day of action in the MLB with all 30 teams taking the field. That means there is no shortage of options in the player prop market.
Tonight, I’m looking at Orioles phenom catcher Adley Rutschman to beat up on a struggling Corey Kluber. Despite his seniority, Andrew McCutchen could run wild tonight against the Dodgers. And one of the newest Blue Jays should make his mark tonight against the White Sox.
Here are my best MLB player props for Tuesday, April 25.
MLB props for April 25
Picks made on 4/25/2023 at 4:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Youth is served
The Baltimore Orioles carry their seven-game winning streak into tonight’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox, and they’ll have a great opportunity to make it eight in a row when they dig in against Corey Kluber.
The former Cy Young Award winner has been a shell of his former self. The right-hander is pitching to a 6.06 expected ERA, and is giving up a .526 expected slugging percentage to opponents. He also ranks in the Bottom 18% in hard-hit percentage and barrel rate.
He’s also been getting crushed by left-handers. They are .308 with a 1.130 OPS against him this season and tonight, he goes against an O’s lineup that has a couple of dangerous left-handers. One of those lefties is of course Adley Rutschman.
The O’s catcher has cooled off a bit after a hot start to the point where he’s hitting just .289 with a .874 OPS. But that OPS bumps up to .927 when he faces right-handed pitchers.
Rutschman has also seen the ball well out of Kluber’s hand during his career. He is 4-for-13 (.308) with two home runs and a .749 expected slugging percentage against Kluber. He gets at least two bags tonight.
Adley Rutschman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Prop bet #2: Cutch comes up clutch
The Pittsburgh Pirates are arguably the biggest surprise through the first month of the MLB season. At 16-7, the Pirates lead the National League Central. Everything has been clicking for this young group, but maybe the re-introduction of leader and Pirates great Andrew McCutchen has made a difference.
Tuesday, Cutch and the Buccos will go against another surprising team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are a surprise in their own right at a middling 12-11. The offense has been too home-run dependent, and the starting pitching needs to be better. That includes tonight’s starter Noah Syndergaard.
The big right-hander has a 4.91 ERA, is giving up a .264 opponent batting average, and isn’t striking out a ton of batters. He has also carried over his problem of letting opponents run wild. A year after allowing a league-leading 30 steals, he’s already given up six through his first four stars of 2023.
Syndergaard is notoriously slow to the plate, and with the new disengagement rules, stealing bases against him is even easier. I think that the veteran McCutchen could still be a problem on the base paths tonight.
McCutchen has stolen three bases in four attempts this season. Of Pirates players eager to swipe bases, he has the highest on-base percentage of .381. And despite this being his 36-year-old season, he still ranks in the 87th percentile in sprint speed.
I’m backing him to swipe a bag against Syndergaard tonight.
Andrew McCutchen Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+330)
Prop bet #3: The Varsho show
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to win their series against the visiting Chicago White Sox when the two American League foes take the field on Tuesday night. The Blue Jays took the opener 5-2 on the strength of a Cavan Biggio three-run homer.
Tonight will see Toronto’s Jose Berrios try to keep building on his recent momentum, while White Sox starter Mike Clevinger is looking for some consistency.
The raw numbers say Clevinger has posted two good and two not-so-good starts as a member of the White Sox this season. But thanks to some command issues, the advanced numbers aren't as kind.
The right-hander owns a 3.26 ERA this season, but he’s been a little lucky with teams not being able to take advantage of the opportunities given to them. He’s surrendered 11 walks over 19 1/3 innings, and has an expected opponent batting average of .272, resulting in a more bloated expected ERA of 6.22.
One Blue Jay I like to take advantage of this matchup is Daulton Varsho. The left-handed batter has hit a bit of a slump lately, but I like this matchup against Clevinger for him.
While he has just three hits in his last five games, two of those hits were for extra bases. On top of that, Varsho still has a .500 expected slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs this season, a pitch Clevinger throws 58% of the time. He has given up a .778 OPS to left-handed hitters.
I like Varsho to go Over his total bases tonight.
Daulton Varsho Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
