We've got a busy Saturday of baseball with 17 games on the MLB betting board. That gives us plenty of player prop odds to sink our teeth into, and today I'm looking to take advantage of a home run-happy ballpark in Mexico City while backing Toronto pitcher Kevin Gausman and Yankees slugger Anthony Rizzo.
Here are my best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, April 29.
MLB props for April 29
Picks made on 4/29/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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No Jay-walking
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is putting together another strong season after pitching to a 3.07 ERA with 432 strikeouts in 366 2-3 innings over the last two years.
Gausman has struck out at least seven batters in four of five starts this season and he's coming off a gem against the Yankees where he fanned 11 batters across seven innings of shutout ball.
Gausman is sixth in the majors with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and his strike percentage of 67.6% ranks 11th. The righty has a chase rate that ranks in the Top-fifth percentile and his splitter has been practically untouchable which will make it very tough for Seattle to have success today.
The Mariners are 28th in the majors in strikeout rate (25.6%) with that number ballooning to 36.5% over their last three games.
Kevin Gausman Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-135)
X Gon Give It To Ya
Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts hasn't been hitting the ball hard this season, but he still leads the team with five home runs. The five-time Silver Slugger winner has a hard-hit rate of just 27.9%, but considering that he finished three of the last five years with a hard-hit rate above 41% that's a clear outlier due for some positive regression.
That regression should happen in a big way today with the matchup between the Giants and Padres taking place at Alfred Harp Helu Stadium in Mexico City. Not only is that venue almost half a mile higher than Coors Field in Denver but the fences are about 20 feet closer to home plate, which has resulted in today's total sitting at a whopping 15.
Bogaerts has done a fantastic job of making contact and it won't take much to drive these balls out of the cozy confines at such a high elevation.
It also helps that the Giants are starting Sean Manaea, who has a 6.61 ERA with an opponent slugging percentage of .583 and has given up five dingers in 16 1/3 innings this year. Back Bogaerts to sock a dinger at better than 3:1 odds.
Xander Bogaerts Prop: to hit a home run (+330)
Puttin' on the Rizz
Anthony Rizzo has just one home run in his last 12 games, but is in a good spot to break out of that slump tonight against Texas.
The Rangers are sending Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, and the right-hander has been getting rocked. Eovaldi has pitched to a 5.20 ERA in five starts and his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 25th percentile at 45.7% — even worse than last year's woeful 45.2%.
Rizzo has plenty of power and clubbed more than 30 home runs in four straight years from 2014 to 2017. After being hindered by injuries the next few seasons he returned to form with the Yankees last year, hammering 32 homers in 130 games.
All five of his dingers this season have come against right-handers and he boasts an impressive .541 slugging percentage against them as well. In addition, Rizzo has gone 7-15 against Eovaldi in his career with a homer and four doubles.
Anthony Rizzo Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
