Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Fading Freeland at Coors vs Braves

Prop bet #1: Double Dipping 

With solid hitting conditions at Fenway (winds blowing out, high humidity, and a 10.5-run total), it’s going to be a tough day on the mound for both starters and I’m double-dipping on Kutter Crawford’s and Framber Valdez’s strikeout Unders.

Valdez is being priced at -114 for Under 5.5 Ks at Caesars while much of the market is shorter. He’ll face a Boston team that sits in the bottom half of the league in K% vs. left-handers and Valdez is coming off a massive 114-pitch start that will surely affect his pitch count today. 

The Houston lefty also only has 30 punch outs over his last 44-plus innings, spanning seven starts where he owns a 5.08 ERA and a 30:15 K:BB rate. THE BAT is projecting 4.7 strikeouts. 

Crawford has been striking out batters of late but his leash is still short as he is averaging 79 pitches per start over his last 10 turns. He’s been a K/inning pitcher over that stretch but has a tough matchup vs. a Houston lineup that is striking out at the lowest rate (18.5%) in baseball over the last 30 days. THE BAT projects 3.82 punch outs for Crawford, making the Under 4.5 at -115 also +EV.

Fenway will help out both Unders and there is a possibility of some early showers in the area which could freeze both starters. 

Both plays were on THE BAT X release show this morning. 

Framber Valdez prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (-114)

Kutter Crawford prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Hopping on Hendricks 

Kyle Hendricks may be a home dog vs. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers today at Wrigley, but there is still a lot to like in his Over 3.5 strikeout prop at -120.

The Brewers are still a heavy K% team, striking out 11 times last night and sporting a lineup that featured six batters with a 20% K% rate or higher. Hendricks is 9-3 to the Over on this number across his last 12 starts and has a sizeable leash that allows him to see plenty of batters.

Home runs can get the efficient pitcher into trouble but with solid double-digiti winds blowing in again today at Wrigley, Hendricks could be seeing fewer stress pitches, which could eventually lead to pithing to more batters. 

Rowdy Tellez is back with the Brewers and if he were to start, that would only help the strikeout prospects as he has a career 23% strikeout rate.

With Pinnacle at -152 and THE BAT projecting nearly 19 outs and 4.53 strikeouts, there’s a lot to like about the Over on this modest total of 3.5.  

Kyle Hendricks prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Freerolling Freeland

Getting a starting pitcher’s out total on the other side of the 15 at Coors is always enticing. However, vs. the Braves with winds blowing out and 90-degree temperatures, hitting the Under on Kyle Freelend’s 15.5 outs is an easy decision.

The market is starting to fall and there is still room for this total to hit 14.5 but at nearly any price (up to -160), I’m more than happy to ride the Under 15.5 outs for the Colorado starter at home vs. the best offense in baseball. If this moves to 14.5 at good plus money on for the Under, it could also be extremely playable. 

It’s a game featuring a 13.5-run total and THE BAT is projecting just 12.9 outs on 77 pitches and 3.96 earned runs allowed for Freeland, who has recorded 16 outs or more at home just once over his last seven home starts dating back to late May. He’s still averaged 90 pitches per start at home over that stretch but has been getting hit hard as most pitchers do in the thin air with a 5.91 ERA and a sightly 1.80 WHIP. Freeland is anything but an efficient pitcher and sits 13th in home runs allowed at 25.   

Atlanta has consistently been the best offense in baseball all season. The Braves plated 14 runs in the series opener on Monday, and followed that with 15 hits last night. Neither Colorado starter saw the sixth inning in those games.

The market could fall but this is a high win-probability play with the projection of 12.9 outs. 

Kyle Freeland prop: Under 15.5 outs (-133)