There are two kinds of inning eaters. Ones who pitch deep into games because they are so good, and ones who pitch deep into games because their teams don’t care.
I’ve found a guy who falls into each one of those categories today and a corresponding prop to go with them as Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Rockies against the Nationals, and the Mariners' George Kirby makes his second straight start vs. the Minnesota Twins.
I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player props for today below.
MLB props for July 25
- Rodriguez Under 17.5 outs
- Gomber Over 2.5 earned runs
- Kirby Over 17.5 outs
Picks made on July 25 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: No glee for E-Rod
Eduardo Rodriguez could be making his final start as a member of the Detroit Tigers as the August 1 trade deadline approaches.
Rodriguez has done a good job improving his trade value this season, pitching to a 2.69 ERA and striking out more than a batter per inning in 2023. But Rodriguez suffered an injury to his left index finger at the end of May, which caused him to miss a month of action.
When he takes the ball tonight against the Los Angeles Angels, it will be just his fourth start since returning from the IL. He is coming off a seven inning performance against the Kansas City Royals where he allowed two runs on four hits, but that was the Royals, and he just hasn’t looked 100 percent.
Rodriguez has averaged 85.3 pitches over the last three starts, down from 96.4 prior to the injury. And with the potential that they move him, I don’t expect the Tigers to suddenly up his pitch count once again.
On top of that, the matchup with the Angels is no picnic. Led by the not-from-this-world Shohei Ohtani, the Angels rank ninth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching this season.
To me, this adds up to a shorter outing for Rodriguez tonight, and at plus money like this, I like the Tigers’ lefty to stay below his outs recorded prop.
Eduardo Rodriguez prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+125)
Prop bet #2: Awful Austin
It hasn’t been a fun season for Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Austin Gomber. The Rockies send the left-hander out there once every fifth game to eat some innings and get lit up. And you’d think a matchup with the Washington Nationals would be a nice reprieve for Gomber, but that Nats are actually sneaky good against southpaws.
Gomber has become something of a glorified innings eater at this point in the season, because no matter how things go in a given start, it looks like the Rockies are just counting down the clock on the 2023 season.
Simply put, Gomber has struggled. The 29-year-old lefty is pitching to a 5.97 expected ERA while surrendering a .295 expected batting average and a .523 expected slugging percentage, and is striking out just 15.3% of batters faced this season. All of those rank in Bottom 6% of the MLB or worse.
Now normally, you would think a matchup with the 41-59 Nats wouldn’t be a bad matchup. But unfortunately for Gomber, they are a scrappy bunch that smashes southpaws.
Washington ranks fourth in batting average and OPS, and ninth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season. The Nats have also faced Gomber once this season back in April and got to him for five runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Gomber also doesn’t have a short leash considering his shortcomings. He is averaging 23 batters and 83 pitches per game over nine starts since the start of June. That means plenty of opportunities for the Nationals to tag him for a few runs.
Austin Gomber prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-145)
Prop bet #3: Kirby kills it
Sometimes backing a pitcher in a second consecutive start against the same team can be a little risky. Theoretically, seeing more pitches from a guy will make you more familiar with him. But Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher George Kirby had the Minnesota Twins in such knots last time out, that risk seems mitigated.
Kirby was named to his first All-Star team in just his second Big League season, and he certainly deserved it. The 25-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 3.83 expected ERA and he doesn’t walk anyone. His 2.3% walk rate is in the Top 1% in the MLB.
Kirby has also taken his game to the next level over his last seven starts, pitching to a 2.80 ERA and limiting opponents to a .220 batting average. That includes baffling the Twins in his last start, shutting them out over seven innings on just four hits while striking out 10.
The fact Kirby doesn’t walk anyone also means he doesn’t waste pitches and can work deeper into games. The right-hander faces an average of 25 batters per game, which has worked out to nearly 6 1/3 innings per start.
While Minnesota has some pop in its lineup, they do not hit the ball well for average on a consistent basis. The Twins rank 20th in batting average, and 11th in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. They also rank 19th in batting average with runners in scoring position.
I expect Kirby to work deep into another ball game tonight, and I’m backing him to go Over 17.5 outs recorded. It's a number he has eclipsed in 15 of his 19 starts this season, and in six of his last seven overall.
George Kirby prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded
Not intended for use in MA.
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