Happy Fourth of July!
May your day be full of family, friends, barbecues, and winning baseball bets. While you may be a little preoccupied with your holiday celebration, I've been digging through MLB odds to find the best player props for today.
We start this Independence Day with a bang by backing the hit machine himself Luis Aarez to pop off against a struggling Adam Wainwright. And what’s more American than free stuff? Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is handing out free passes at the same rate Joey Chestnut downs hot dogs. And hopefully, George Springer brings the fireworks a little early when he digs in against the White Sox.
Check out my best MLB player props for the Fourth of July below!
MLB props for July 4
- Arraez Over 1.5 hits
- Freeland Over 1.5 BBs
- Springer Over 1.5 TBs
Picks made on July 4 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Arraez plays the hits
Luis Arraez is not human. He is a robot designed for one purpose. Hitting baseballs. And no one can light up the box score more this Fourth of July than the Miami Marlins second baseman.
Arraez looks like he will have a legitimate shot to hit the magical .400 this season. The 26-year-old Arraez is hitting .388 with a .917 OPS heading into this final week before the All-Star break. His latest hit streak is a meager four games, but he also has hits in 15 of his last 16 games with a .424 average and a 1.010 OPS.
Now, he gets a spectacularly juicy matchup as he’ll dig in against Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Wainwright should have taken a cue from his longtime batterymate Yadier Molina and rode off into the sunset following last season. Because 2023 has been a rough go for the Cardinals' veteran starter.
There is no sugarcoating it. Wainwright has been downright awful. The right-hander is pitching to an ugly 7.57 expected ERA while surrendering a .341 expected batting average, a .573 expected slugging percentage, and isn’t striking out anyone to boot with a K-rate of just 10.7%. All of those numbers are in the Bottom 2% of MLB pitchers.
Left-handed hitters have been particularly rough on him, getting to Wainwright for a .400 average and a 1.163 OPS.
Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball at the moment and has recorded a multi-hit game in 42.5% of the games he’s played this season. With this matchup against Wainwright, he is primed for another today.
Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+135 at PointsBet)
Prop bet #2: Freeland's boots were made for walking
After a solid start to the season, the wheels have fallen off for Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. The southpaw will do his best to get back on track when he takes the mound at Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros.
Freeland had a 3.16 ERA over his first nine starts of the season, but over his last eight that ERA has bumped up to 7.15 and he is also surrendering a .331 and a .932 OPS. A contributing cause to this seems to be his sudden lack of control.
Over those first nine starts, Freeland was among the MLB leaders in walk rate at just 5.9%. But the lefty has lost his command and there has been a drastic shift recently with that number jumping all the way to 10.1% over his last seven starts.
While the Astros don’t have the highest walk rate vs. left-handed pitchers at 8.6%, they also have one of the MLB’s lowest strikeout rates and see a lot of pitches. That’s more than good enough to send Freeland Over 1.5 walks a number he has gone Over in six of his last seven starts.
Kyle Freeland prop: Over 1.5 walks (-110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Springer in his step
If the Toronto Blue Jays ever start popping off like Fourth of July fireworks, watch out.
Unfortunately, they just never seem in sync. Some guys are hot, and some are cold. Luckily, one of the guys who is hot right now is leadoff specialist George Springer and he gets a nice matchup when the Jays visit the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night.
Springer has bounced back from his slow start. Since the middle of May (41 games) the Jays leadoff hitter has a .321 batting average with a .909 OPS, which includes seven Springer dingers. Over the last 10 games, those numbers bump up to .350 and .936.
Tonight, he’ll dig into the batter’s box to face off against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito. The Pale Hose right-hander has also bounced back of late. But even though the strikeouts have returned, he is still getting hit around a fair amount.
Giolito has surrendered six or more hits in six of his last eight starts. Overall, he has a 4.18 xERA and is giving up a .433 xSLG, which ranks just in the 30th percentile in the MLB.
Springer also has solid numbers in his career vs. Giolito, going 3-9 with three walks and two doubles. That’s good for a .341 xBA and a .493 xSLG.
Springer has gone Over 1.5 total bases six times in the last 10 games. With this matchup against Giolito and getting even money, I like Springer to lead off this game with a bang and get us Over that number once again when all is said and done.
George Springer prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+104)
Not intended for use in MA.
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