Baseball betting’s favorite punching bag will be on the mound tonight when Jordan Lyles takes the ball for the Kansas City Royals against the Cleveland Guardians.
Stunningly, the Royals actually won Lyles’ last start, improving their record to 1-15 when he takes the mound this season. But just because they won doesn’t mean he didn’t give up a bunch of runs.
And in the crazy stat of the day, Luis Arraez is so good at hitting, that his batting average has actually gone down during his latest hitting streak. But he’s a good bet to make that average go up in tonight’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.
I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player props for today below.
MLB props for July 6
- Berrios Over 4.5 Ks
- Arraez Over 1.5 hits
- Lyles Over 2.5 ERs
Picks made on July 6 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Jose blows 'em away
The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox had the second game of their series rained out on Wednesday, setting up a doubleheader today. Jose Berrios will still take the ball as planned in the first of the two games and it looks as if he is providing us some value with his strikeout market.
In fact, the right-hander actually has been doing that over his last several starts. Oddsmakers keep undervaluing him due to his 22.7% strikeout rate, which sits in the 47th percentile among MLB pitchers. However, Berrios has improved upon that number of late, and when you combine that with his ability to pitch deep into ball games, his strikeout total of 4.5 for today looks low.
Berrios has been pretty solid over his last nine starts, pitching to a 2.95 ERA and limiting opponents to a .224 batting average. And part of that is because he is striking out more batters. Over the last nine games, Berrios has seen his strikeout rate jump up to 24.4%.
On top of that, he has become one of the most reliable arms in the American League when it comes to innings pitched. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in 13 of his last 14 starts, is facing an average of 25.2 batters per start, and is throwing an average of 93.9 pitches per start.
Today, he faces off against a White Sox team (Luis Robert Jr. aside) that is struggling against right-handed pitching. Chicago ranks 22nd in batting average, 28th in OPS, and 25th in wRC+ when facing righties this season. And most importantly, they have the 11th highest K-rate at 23.2%.
That all adds up to another long start for Berrios where he will have plenty of opportunities to go Over 4.5 strikeouts, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last nine starts.
Jose Berrios prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Prop bet #2: All over Arraez
Arraez’s latest hitting streak began on June 30 against the Atlanta Braves. He entered that game with a .392 average. But despite collecting at least one knock in each of his last six games, his batting average now sits at .384. Being really, really good at hitting is tough I guess.
That said, I’m betting that average sees an uptick following tonight’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Arraez’s chase for .400 will be one of the most intriguing storylines in the second half of the season and it feels like he has the tools to pull it off.
That’s because the Marlins' second baseman is making soft contact cool again. Arraez doesn’t hit the ball hard, but put something in the zone against him and he’s going to get a bat on it. He ranks in the 99th percentile in whiff rate, and has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
Those tools will be put to good use tonight against Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty. The Cardinals right-hander is still looking for some consistency this season. Overall, he is pitching to a 4.74 expected ERA, while surrendering a .257 expected batting average to opponents. He also isn’t striking out a ton of guys.
And it’s left-handed hitters who have given him the most problems. Lefties are getting to him for a .294 average and a .809 OPS.
Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball at the moment and has recorded a multi-hit game in 41.5% of the games he’s played this season. At +160 with this matchup against Flaherty, there is value on him to up that batting average today.
Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+160)
Prop bet #3: Fade away
Jordan Lyles has quite obviously become one of the best fades in baseball. But shockingly, the Kansas City Royals actually won his last start. The first time that has happened all season. Now, with a 1-15 record in his starts, he takes the mound Thursday against the Cleveland Guardians.
It’s been a tough go of things for Lyles in 2023. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.96 expected ERA and is surrendering a .484 expected slugging percentage to opponents. On top of that, he’s not striking out anyone with a K-rate of just 16.3%.
So, with those numbers, Lyles has basically become a punching bag for bettors these days. But since everyone knows that at this point, you have to get creative in your fades of him on a game-by-game basis.
Tonight, against the Guardians, that means looking at his earned runs allowed prop. The Guardians aren’t really known for their bats but they do perform better against right-handers. Cleveland ranks 12th in batting average and 22nd in wRC+ vs righties. They also have one of the MLB’s lowest strikeout rates, so there should be plenty of balls in play tonight.
The Guardians have also been heating up at the plate over the last month. Since the start of June, Cleveland ranks fourth in batting average and 13th in wRC+.
Lyles has surrendered three or more runs in 14 of his 16 starts this season. Let’s not mess with tradition.
Jordan Lyles prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-135)
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