What can make a warm June day even better? A getaway day on the diamond! That means we’ve got MLB odds to bet on all day and today, I’ve dug up a trio of pitcher props that are as hot as the sun.
The pitching situation in Colorado is dire and it feels like Connor Seabold has been thrown to the wolves. The Reds' Hunter Greene has an electric arm, but will that be enough against a tough Red Sox lineup? Lastly, Minnesota's Pablo Lopez looks primed to silence the bats of a light-hitting Cleveland team.
So, let’s stay hot with my best MLB player prop picks for this first day of June.
MLB props for June 1
- Seabold Over 2.5 earned runs
- Greene Over 2.5 earned runs
- Lopez Under 5.5 hits
Picks made on 6/1/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: D-backs do damage
It looks like another season by the wayside for the Colorado Rockies. At 24-33, they sit in last place in the NL West. A big reason for that has been the rotation being ravaged by injuries.
As a result, some guys have been thrown into situations they haven’t been ready for, including tonight’s starter Connor Seabold. Seabold began the season as the Rockies' long reliever, but due to those injuries, has been thrust into the rotation — and things have not gone well so far.
The right-hander is pitching to a 6.35 ERA and surrendering a .948 over his first five starts this year. Seabold also doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, with just 14 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings of work as a starter, and ranks in the 11th percentile in K-rate.
And today, he gets one of his toughest tasks as a starter as he takes the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The D-backs — and particularly their offense — have been one of the bigger surprises in baseball this season. While they may not have any big-name boppers, this is a balanced and deep lineup. Arizona ranks sixth in batting average, fourth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+ when it faces right-handed pitchers.
Seabold has surrendered three or more earned runs in four of his five starts this season and the one time he didn’t was against a slumping Pirates team.
Connor Seabold prop: Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Prop bet #2: BoSox get to Greene
Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene has one of the best young arms in baseball and is already one of the better strikeout artists in the game, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a few things to work on, and tonight, he gets a tough matchup as he and his teammates head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox.
Some of Greene’s numbers are really solid. Namely, his expected ERA, sitting at 3.76, and his strikeout rate of 32.8%, which is in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers.
That said, Greene’s biggest issue is that he's basically working with two pitches at the moment, a fastball and a slider. Now, both are great pitches: the fastball averages a ridiculous 98.7 miles per hour, but when you only have two pitches, hitters have a reasonable chance of guessing what you're going to throw in any given count.
Even though the fastball is fast. This is the Big Leagues and Big League hitters can catch up to the heat, and when Greene does get hit, he gets hit hard. The right-hander ranks in the Bottom 23% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
And the Red Sox are a team that is capable of hitting him hard. Boston ranks fourth in batting average, fifth in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Greene has also been in a bit of a slump in the month of May, pitching to a FIP of 4.96, and has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his five starts this month.
Greene may get a handful of punchouts tonight, but I’m also betting he gives up a few runs as well.
Hunter Greene prop: Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
Prop bet #3: Pitchin' like Pablo
The Minnesota Twins are definitely an imperfect division leader and residing in the AL Central certainly helps, but one thing they do have going for them is starting pitching. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and newcomer Pablo Lopez lead the way, and today, it’s Lopez’s turn in the rotation when the Twins host the rival Cleveland Guardians.
Lopez has been an excellent addition to this Twins staff after coming over in a trade this offseason. Lopez is pitching to a 3.53 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .216 expected batting average and ranking in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate. And I think he’ll have a great opportunity to improve those numbers against a light-hitting Guardians team.
This season has not gone to plan for the Guardians thus far. The combination of no offense and injuries has the Guardians at 25-30 and in third place in the division.
The lineup is just really thin outside of third baseman Jose Ramirez. Cleveland ranks 25th in batting average, 29th in OPS, and dead last in the majors when it comes to wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. That means Lopez can cause them problems.
The Twins’ right-hander does an excellent job of limiting solid contact and is allowing just 7.4 hits per nine innings. Lopez’s hits allowed prop is on the board at 5.5, but he's held opponents below this number in seven of his 11 starts this season. I’m betting he does so again vs. an anemic Guardians offense.
Pablo Lopez prop: Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115)
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