Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Eflin Takes Charge Against Oakland

Prop bet #1: Texas stamps Tyler

Until Shohei Ohtani becomes an actual baseball robot and can throw 162 games a season, it feels like starting pitching will always be an issue for the Los Angeles Angels. 

Tyler Anderson was supposed to help out with those problems but unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to maintain his All-Star level of play from a season ago... and things won’t get easier when he takes the mound against one of the best lineups in baseball — the Texas Rangers.

Anderson signed a deal with the Angels in the offseason following a year with the Dodgers where he owned a very nice 3.10 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .225 xBA. However, command has been a problem for him this season. 

As a result, his strikeout rate is way down, and opponents are hitting him with much more regularity. Through 11 starts this season the lefty is pitching to a 5.05 xERA and opponents are getting to him for a .270 xBA. 

And here comes the Rangers. No team in baseball has plated more runs than Texas this season and it absolutely mashes southpaws. The Rangers rank fifth in batting average and third in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

Anderson’s regression and the tough matchup have me betting on this being a shorter outing for him. The lefty is already averaging just Under 5 1/3 innings per start this season and that includes a five-inning performance vs. this same Texas team back on May 5.

His outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5 for tonight’s matchup, a mark Anderson has gone Under in seven of his 11 starts this season. 

Tyler Anderson prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-110)

Prop bet #2: Great Eflin win

We should be able to sign a petition so the Oakland A’s don’t have to play the Tampa Bay Rays. I know the A’s are currently experiencing the high point of their season with a five-game winning streak in the works, but beating up on Pittsburgh and Milwaukee is a little different than taking on the best team in baseball.

On top of Tampa's dominance, tonight it hands the ball to arguably its most effective starter in Zach Eflin. The RHP is the Rays’ latest reclamation project. While always having some under-the-radar advanced numbers it appears Tampa has unlocked the best version of Eflin.

Eflin is pitching to an impressive 2.83 xERA while limiting opponents to a .217 xBA and a .363 xSlugging percentage through 11 starts. Tonight, he’ll be on the mound against an Oakland team that ranks 29th in batting average and OPS, and 24th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.

The A’s counter Eflin with James Kaprielian. While Kaprielian is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed just one earned run on four hits over six innings, he got a little lucky. He also surrendered five walks in that game and struck out just one.

Overall, the rightie's numbers are ugly. He’s pitching to a 5.58 xERA and has a K-rate, xBA, and xSlugging all in the Bottom 30% of the league. And now he gets the pleasure of facing the Rays, who lead the MLB in OPS and wRC+ vs. RHP this season.

Eflin has earned a win in eight of his 11 starts this season, so getting plus money for him to do so against Oakland is too good to pass up.

Zach Eflin prop: To record a win (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Carroll cooks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the best stories in baseball this season. The desert snakes actually lead the National League West at 40-25 and a big reason for that has been a lineup that has really gelled this season. In the middle of that lineup is outfielder Corbin Carroll, who might be the hottest hitter on the planet right now.

Carroll is having a great season overall, hitting for a .308 average with a .968 OPS, and he's taken his game to the next level lately. In fact, the ball must look like the size of a melon to him. The 22-year-old is hitting .500 with a ridiculous 1.706 OPS over his last six games, including eight extra-base hits while striking out just three times.

I like his chances to keep swinging a hot stick when he digs into the batter’s box vs. Philadelphia Phillies' starter Matt Strahm. 

Strahm has been effective for the Phillies — pitching to a 3.38 ERA — but his role keeps changing. Philly continues to move him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, preventing him from getting in a real flow. The lefty is averaging just over 3 2/3 innings when he starts, meaning plenty of innings for a Phillies bullpen that ranks 16th in xFIP, 24th in WHIP, and 19th in opponent batting average. 

Carroll's splits vs. southpaws are solid and he has gone Over 1.5 total bases four times in his last six games. I’m backing him to make it five of seven at solid plus money.

Corbin Carroll prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)