We're about a third of the way through the 2023 MLB season and a few things have become pretty apparent: The A's pitching is beyond terrible, Minnesota's Bailey Ober is one of baseball's best-kept secrets, and even in a down year, Zack Wheeler is pretty damn good.
That's why I'm fading the A's in favor of Marlins slugger Jorge Soler while backing Ober and Wheeler with my best free MLB prop picks for June 2.
MLB props for June 2
- Wheeler Under 1.5 walks
- Soler Over 1.5 total bases
- Ober Over 4.5 strikeouts
Picks made on 6/2/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Wheelin' and dealin'
Zack Wheeler has been a bit up-and-down for the Phillies this season. To be fair, most MLB starters would gladly take an ERA of 3.60, but for a guy who has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last three years, there's room for improvement.
However, Wheeler is coming off his best performance of the year, throwing eight innings of shutout ball against the Braves, and he has an easier task tonight against the Nationals.
One area where Wheeler has continued to excel is his control. He's in the Top 20th percentile of the majors this season with a 5.5% walk rate, which is practically identical to his walk rate in each of the last three years.
Wheeler hasn't walked more than a single batter in each of his last six starts and now faces a Nats lineup that walks at the third-lowest rate in the majors.
Zack Wheeler prop: Wheeler Under 1.5 walks (-140)
A's of base
Somewhat surprisingly, the Miami Marlins are one game above .500 and host the worst team in the majors today in the Oakland A's. Miami hasn't been great at the plate, but one player that has been mashing is Jorge Soler.
Soler is tied for seventh in the majors with 112 total bases and leads Miami in slugging percentage (.546), home runs (17) and doubles (10). The designated hitter is sixth in the majors in barrel rate while ranking seventh in expected slugging percentage (.588) and in the Top 25th percentile in hard hit rate and average exit velocity.
It certainly helps Soler that the A's pitching situation is a complete disaster. Shintaro Fujinami will serve as Oakland's opener today and has a 12.00 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP in 30 innings. He'll likely log only a few innings before handing things off to the worst bullpen in the majors. Oakland's relievers have combined for an MLB-worst 1.60 WHIP and 6.23 ERA — more than a run higher than the second-worst White Sox.
Soler went off in the month of May, hitting 12 homers and slugging .626 and he looks like a good bet to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight.
Jorge Soler prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Ober's Overs
The Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians in an AL Central showdown this evening. Bailey Ober is on the hill for the home side and has been extremely impressive this season, pitching to a 2.68 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP through seven starts.
The 27-year-old had a breakout sophomore season last year when he had a 3.21 ERA across 11 starts. The towering 27-year-old doesn't throw with much velocity but he has decent movement on his arsenal and does an excellent job of making batters chase pitches.
Ober is coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Blue Jays and has racked up at least six punchouts in five of his last six starts. The Guardians have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors but Ober managed to fan six of them when he pitched in Cleveland last month. The O/U of 4.5 on his strikeouts is too low here.
Bailey Ober prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+108)
Not intended for use in MA.
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